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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 04 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: 	Sat, 5 Jun 1993 20:17:12 +0300
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  04 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 04 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 155, 06/04/93
10.7 FLUX=129.9  90-AVG=120        SSN=119      BKI=4466 3434  BAI=037
BGND-XRAY=B4.0     FLU1=1.7E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=4466 4455  PAI=048
  BOU-DEV=042,041,130,125,008,051,029,058   DEV-AVG=060 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.5   @ 0001UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.6   @ 0923UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.1
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55424NT @ 2338UT   BOUTF-MIN=55285NT @ 1018UT  BOUTF-AVG=55358NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+070,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+140NT@ 1828UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-163NT@ 0407UT  G6-AVG=+094,-036,-088
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,130,125;SESC:130,130,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,020,010/030,020,015
    KFCST=4446 5433 4445 4333  27DAY-AP=035,039   27DAY-KP=5455 5344 5654 3345
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=**MINSTRM:BEGIN@1200UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 03 JUN 93 was  90.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 03 JUN 93 are: 3- 2- 4o 4o   4o 3o 3o 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. An optically uncorrelated
       M1.0 x-ray burst occurred at 03/2336Z. Decay was observed
       within the Region 7514 (N16W62)/7515 (N14W58) complex. Region
       7515 produced an isolated C-class subflare. Significant growth
       occurred in the trailer portion of Region 7518 (S10E05) while
       minor growth occurred in Region 7519 (N06E24). No new regions
       were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low. Regions 7515 and 7518 are expected to produce
       C-class subflares. Region 7515 also provides a slight chance
       for an isolated M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm
       levels for the past 24 hours. Storm conditions began near
       04/0700Z and may have been due to coronal hole effects. Some
       high latitude stations reported severe storm levels near
       04/1200Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels during the
       first two days due to continuing coronal hole effects. Brief
       major to severe storm periods could occur at high latitudes.
       The field is expected to decline to mostly unsettled levels
       by the final day.

            Event probabilities 05 jun-07 jun

                             Class M    20/20/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 05 jun-07 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/20
                        Minor Storm           30/30/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/20
                        Minor Storm           30/30/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    20/20/05

            HF propagation conditions were significantly degraded over
       the high and polar latitude regions today, particularly areas
       within or near the auroral zones.  Strong absorption, fading
       and other anomalous factors resulted in near-useless
       propagation during the night-sectors of the high and polar
       latitude paths.  Middle latitude paths were less heavily
       affected, but still experienced moderate signal degradation
       during the local night hours.  Similar poor propagation
       conditions are expected over the next 24 to 48 hours, with
       gradual improvements anticipated on 06 and 07 June as the
       disturbance wanes.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7514  N16W62  082  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7515  N14W58  078  0360 EAI  12  022 BETA-GAMMA
7517  N10W30  050  0090 CSO  05  008 BETA
7518  S10E05  015  0240 DAO  07  018 BETA
7519  N06E24  356  0100 CSO  08  007 BETA
7521  N12E05  015  0010 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
7512  N09W83  103                    PLAGE
7520  S09W26  046                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 05 JUNE TO 07 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
7504 N10   275
7506 N10   270


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 04 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1825 1826 1826                          130


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 04 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
04/A1243             B1551       N27E41   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
11   S50E06 S50E06 S50W54 S21W44  053  EXT   NEG   032 10830A
12   N44E86 S13E38 S10E31 N44E86  326  ISO   POS   037 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


