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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 03 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 3 Jun 93 23:11:01 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  03 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 03 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 154, 06/03/93
10.7 FLUX=136.4  90-AVG=120        SSN=138      BKI=3244 3322  BAI=015
BGND-XRAY=B4.5     FLU1=1.3E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3244 4333  PAI=017
  BOU-DEV=021,012,041,045,033,038,017,015   DEV-AVG=027 NT     SWF=02:003
 XRAY-MAX= M1.0   @ 1554UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.9   @ 2012UT   XRAY-AVG= B7.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55378NT @ 2359UT   BOUTF-MIN=55308NT @ 1623UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+074,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+145NT@ 1833UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-091NT@ 0216UT  G6-AVG=+098,-023,-055
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,130,125;SESC:135,130,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,020,020/015,025,025
    KFCST=3335 4332 3335 4332  27DAY-AP=017,035   27DAY-KP=2422 3335 5455 5344
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.0/SN@1554,N15W46(7514);**MINFLR:M1.0@2336UTC,NO-OPT-COR
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 02 JUN 93 was 105.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 02 JUN 93 are: 1o 1- 2o 3-   2+ 2- 2- 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. The 7514/7515 complex
       (N15W46) produced an M1.0/SN flare at 03/1554Z. Region 7515
       (N15W43) is the largest sunspot group on the disk. Penumbral
       decay is evident in the central portion of the region but
       new emergence in the northwest has resulted in several small
       new spots here and in Region 7514 (N17W49). Region 7518 (S10E19)
       appears to be maturing and has produced a number of subflares.
       New Regions 7520 (S09W13) and 7521 (N12E18) were numbered.

       STD: A second minor class M1.0 flare was observed at 03/2336Z,
       but has not (yet) been optically correlated.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. M-class activity is possible in 7514/7515 and
       in Region 7518.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days
       in response to a coronal hole.

       STD: Activity is gradually increasing in intensity at the
       present time.  Minor storming is likely over the upper middle
       and high latitude regions.

            Event probabilities 04 jun-06 jun

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 04 jun-06 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           25/30/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/15

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           25/30/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    20/20/20

            HF propagation conditions were normal to above normal over
       most regions.  Enhancements in MUF by as much as approximately
       40% were reported over many middle and low latitude stations
       (particularly the lower latitudes).  A few openings between
       30 and 40 MHz were also reported, although no significant
       6-meter (50 MHz) openings were received.  Conditions are
       expected to deteriorate over the next 24 hours.  Levels of
       geomagnetic and auroral activity are increasing at the present
       time, which should lead to a reduction in MUFs over the next 24
       hours.  Propagation should become below-normal over the high
       and polar latitude paths, stretching into the upper middle
       latitude paths particularly during the local night hours.  This
       disturbance is expected to last until about 06 or 07 June.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7514  N17W49  082  0040 HAX  02  006 ALPHA
7515  N15W43  076  0430 EKI  13  032 BETA
7517  N10W16  049  0090 CSO  05  005 BETA
7518  S10E19  014  0220 DAO  09  015 BETA
7519  N05E37  356  0080 CSO  07  004 BETA
7520  S09W13  046  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7521  N12E18  015  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7512  N09W70  103                    PLAGE
7513  N02W79  112                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 04 JUNE TO 06 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
7504 N10   275
7506 N10   270


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 03 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1043 1043 1043                          220
 1548 1554 1557 7514  N15W46 M1.0  SN   2400 110
 2317 2336 2345              M1.0


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 03 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
11   S50E15 S50E15 S44W47 S22W15  056  EXT   NEG   026 10830A
12   N35E85 S10E48 S07E44 N40E85  331  ISO   POS   019 10830A

NOTE: Coronal hole areas have been incorrectly reported by the SESC
      due to an error in their algorithm.  This error was corrected on
      02 June.  The coronal hole data reported above should not be
      used for quantitative studies.


**  End of Daily Report  **


