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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 02 June
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 93 20:27:19 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  02 JUNE, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 02 JUNE, 1993
--------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 153, 06/02/93
10.7 FLUX=139.4  90-AVG=121        SSN=133      BKI=0122 2222  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B4.6     FLU1=4.8E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1123 2222  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=004,007,013,017,015,013,013,017   DEV-AVG=012 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.1   @ 2111UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.0   @ 1814UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.6
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55372NT @ 1243UT   BOUTF-MIN=55330NT @ 1744UT  BOUTF-AVG=55357NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+079,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+138NT@ 1956UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-065NT@ 0012UT  G6-AVG=+105,-015,-043
 FLUXFCST=STD:140,135,130;SESC:140,135,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,020/010,015,025
    KFCST=2224 3221 2234 4332  27DAY-AP=009,017   27DAY-KP=2222 3332 2422 3335
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 01 JUN 93 was  82.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 01 JUN 93 are: 2- 1+ 1- 1-   2o 2- 1+ 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Regions 7515 (N15W29) and 7518
       (S09E32) both produced a number of small subflares during the
       past day. Region 7515 is the largest region on the disk. It has
       grown since yesterday but remains magnetically simple. Region
       7518 has also grown and is also presently simple.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate.

            The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next day or so. A
       coronal hole may increase activity levels by the third day.

            Event probabilities 03 jun-05 jun

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 03 jun-05 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/30/30
                        Minor Storm           05/30/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/15/15

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/30/30
                        Minor Storm           05/25/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/20/20

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Gradual degradation of high and polar latitude path
       signals is anticipated on 04 and particularly 05 June when a
       coronal hole becomes well placed.  Middle latitude paths should
       see minor signal degradation during the local night sectors on
       these days.  Low and equatorial paths should remain near-normal
       throughout most of the period.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z JUNE
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7512  N09W57  103  0020 BXO  11  005 BETA
7514  N17W35  081  0070 HAX  02  002 ALPHA
7515  N15W29  075  0480 EAI  14  039 BETA
7517  N09W02  048  0080 CSO  09  009 BETA
7518  S09E32  014  0180 DAO  08  014 BETA
7519  N05E51  355  0050 CAO  08  004 BETA
7513  N02W66  112                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 03 JUNE TO 05 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 02 JUNE, 1993
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0150 0151 0152                          110


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 02 JUNE, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
11   S50E28 S50W43 S50W43 S22W12  052  EXT   NEG   034 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


