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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9306241626.AA27354@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: WARNING: Potential Major Solar Flare Warning
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 24 Jun 93 10:26:27 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 131
Status: OR

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                     POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

                          ISSUED: 14:30 UT, 24 JUNE

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PRIMARY CANDIDATE FOR HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY : REGION 7529 (S11E60)

 --------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   ESTIMATED POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF ENERGETIC ACTIVITY OVER NEXT 7 DAYS   |
|--------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| DAYS |   C5.0   |   M1.0   |   M5.0   |   X1.0   |   X5.0   |   >X12.0   |
|------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|------------|
|1( )P |   95 %   |   50 %   |   30 %   |   05 %   |    5 %   |     1 %    |
|3( )PG|  100 %   |   65 %   |   50 %   |   30 %   |   10 %   |     1 %    |
|5( )PG|  100 %   |   80 %   |   60 %   |   40 %   |   15 %   |     2 %    |
|7( )PG|  100 %   |   90 %   |   70 %   |   40 %   |   20 %   |     2 %    |
 --------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAYS = Number of days (from present) into the future (1, 3, 5 and 7 days).
(+)  = Primary candidate region expected to GROW and DEVELOP.
( )  = Primary candidate region expected to STABILIZE or remain STABLE.
(-)  = Primary candidate region expected to DECAY and SIMPLIFY.
(x)P = Possible proton and/or PCA threat. (x) may be one of (+), (-), or ( ).
(x)G = If a favorable major flare develops, a moderate to high probability
       exists that the event may be geoeffective.
xx % = Probability of activity equalling or exceeding the given x-ray class
       sometime over the next number of DAYS.
WLT  = Data not applicable due to the West Limb Transit of the target region.

The above chart should be used as a guide only.  It represents anticipated
levels of activity based on current projections of region development.
Actual conditions may, of course, differ from these projections.


SYNOPSIS:

     Region 7529 (S11E60) produced a major M9.7/2B Tenflare with major Types
II and IV sweeps at 07:35 UTC on 24 June.  Preliminary analysis of this
region indicates that it may be capable of supporting additional strong major
flares over the next week at least.  Proton flares are a very real
possibility.  This latest event was a suspected proton flare.  Most
indicators point toward additional major flare activity from this spot group.

     This warning will be updated as necessary over the coming days.  This is
a potentially significant solar region and should be monitored closely.

     This warning will remain active until 05 July when it will be updated
or allowed to expire.


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