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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9306300438.AA14868@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: WARNING: Potential Geomagnetic Storm Warning
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 29 Jun 93 22:38:48 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
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Status: OR

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                  POTENTIAL MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

                         ISSUED: 04:00 UT, 30 JUNE

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    HIGH RISK PERIOD:       01 July  (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD:  01 - 02 July

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MINOR
      POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MINOR - WEAK MAJOR

      POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM:  36 TO 48 HOURS

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  6
      POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  6

  EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX:  5 - 6
        EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX:  5 - 6

   POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  LOW
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  GOOD - VERY GOOD

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  MODERATE
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  GOOD - OCCASIONALLY POOR

  POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  MODERATE - HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  FAIR TO VERY POOR

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS:  15% PROBABLE

SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
     Well-placed recurrent coronal hole.


---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT       EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
       SEVERE STORM : 10 %                 LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
        MAJOR STORM : 25 %              MIDDLE LATITUDES : MINOR
        MINOR STORM : 30 %                HIGH LATITUDES : MINOR
     ACTIVE OR LESS : 35 %               POLAR LATITUDES : MINOR
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
 PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 10 %          ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MINOR

ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 30


**  End of Warning  **


