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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9306081806.AA01832@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: WARNING: Potential Geomagnetic Storm Warning
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 8 Jun 93 12:06:14 MDT
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Status: OR

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                  POTENTIAL MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

                          ISSUED: 17:30 UT, 08 JUNE

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    HIGH RISK PERIOD:  09 Jun - 10 Jun (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD:  09 Jun - 11 Jun

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MINOR - MAJOR
      POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MAJOR

      POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM:  24 HOURS

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  6
      POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  7

  EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX:  5 - 6
        EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX:  6

   POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  MODERATE
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  GOOD - OCCASIONALLY FAIR

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR - MAJOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  FAIR - OCCASIONALLY POOR

  POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR - MAJOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  POOR TO OCCASIONALLY USELESS

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS:  55% PROBABLE

SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
     Major M5.4/2B tenflare with major Types II and IV sweeps on 07 June.


---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT       EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
       SEVERE STORM : 10 %                 LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
        MAJOR STORM : 40 %              MIDDLE LATITUDES : MINOR - MAJOR
        MINOR STORM : 30 %                HIGH LATITUDES : MINOR - MAJOR
     ACTIVE OR LESS : 20 %               POLAR LATITUDES : MINOR - MAJOR
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
 PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 75 %          ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MINOR-MAJOR

ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 40


**  End of Warning  **


