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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9306300428.AA14024@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WATCH: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 29 Jun 93 22:28:51 MDT
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Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 135
Status: OR

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                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                          ISSUED: 04:00 UT, 30 JUNE

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

NOTE:  We are beginning to provide special satellite images of auroral
       activity over the Antarctic polar regions from the DMSP F11
       satellite.  Anonymously FTP to the site "xi.uleth.ca" (IP
       number 142.66.3.29) and grab the GIF-formatted images from the
       directory "pub/solar/Aurora/Images".  We hope to provide at
       least one image per day while the terminator is away from the
       Antarctic region.  These images are obtained from the low-light
       camera's on-board the F11 DMSP satellite.  The camera mode
       combined with the fact that there is no moon is the cause for
       "noise" in the images.  Convolution filters will eliminate this
       noise.  Files have the format "DDDHHMMv.GIF" where DDD is
       replaced with the day number in the current year (001-365), and
       HHMM represents the hour and minute (in UTC time) of the
       observation.  The "v" indicates that the image is a
       visible-light image.


VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 03 JULY

MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 30 JUNE - 02 JULY (UT days)

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 3 DAYS: 15, 27, 22 (30 JUN - 02 JUL)
(INPUT INTO THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  MODERATE

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE:  MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        MOST OF THE NORTHERN U.S. STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA FROM SOUTHERN
        BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CENTRAL MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA TO
        MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO SOUTHERN MAINE AND POSSIBLY
        PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        NORTHERN U.K. TO THE NORTHERN EUROPEAN REGIONS INCLUDING MUCH OF
        THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF NORWAY, SWEDEN AND FINLAND, TO
        NORTHERN RUSSIA.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AUSTRALIAN AND NEW
        ZEALAND REGIONS MIGHT SPOT ACTIVITY.

* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.


SYNOPSIS...

     A well-placed coronal hole will begin influencing levels of auroral
     activity on 01 and 02 July.  This recurrent disturbance has proven
     geoeffective over the last two solar rotations and should enhance levels
     of auroral activity to moderate levels.  Activity is expected to peak on
     01 July.  Lunar phase will hamper attempts to view activity, but under
     dark skies, many middle latitude regions should be able to spot periods
     of activity on the horizon.

     This WATCH will remain active until 19:00 UT on 03 July when it will
     either be updated or allowed to expire.


**  End of Watch  **


