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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9306250529.AA05350@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WATCH: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 24 Jun 93 23:29:19 MDT
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Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
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Status: OR

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                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                          ISSUED: 05:00 UT, 25 JUNE

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

NOTE:  We are beginning to provide special satellite images of auroral
       activity over the Antarctic polar regions from the DMSP F11
       satellite.  Anonymously FTP to the site "xi.uleth.ca" (IP
       number 142.66.3.29) and grab the GIF-formatted images from the
       directory "pub/solar/Aurora/Images".  We hope to provide at
       least one image per day while the terminator is away from the
       Antarctic region.  These images are obtained from the low-light
       camera's on-board the F11 DMSP satellite.  The camera mode
       combined with the fact that there is no moon is the cause for
       "noise" in the images.  Convolution filters will eliminate this
       noise.  Files have the format "DDDHHMMv.GIF" where DDD is
       replaced with the day number in the current year (001-365), and
       HHMM represents the hour and minute (in UTC time) of the
       observation.  The "v" indicates that the image is a
       visible-light image.


VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 27 JUNE

MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 25 - 27 JUNE (UT days)

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 4 DAYS: 25, 25, 20, 15 (25 - 28 JUN)
(INPUT INTO THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  MODERATE

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: SUNSET TO 01:00 AM LOCAL TIME

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE:  LOW - MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        MOST OF THE NORTHERN U.S. STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA FROM SOUTHERN
        BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CENTRAL MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA TO
        MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO SOUTHERN MAINE AND POSSIBLY
        PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        NORTHERN U.K. TO THE NORTHERN EUROPEAN REGIONS INCLUDING MUCH OF
        THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF NORWAY, SWEDEN AND FINLAND, TO
        NORTHERN RUSSIA.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AUSTRALIAN AND NEW
        ZEALAND REGIONS MIGHT SPOT ACTIVITY.

* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.


SYNOPSIS...

     A strong major solar flare that erupted at 07:35 UTC on 24 June
     combined with a well-placed solar coronal hole are expected to
     produce enhanced levels of auroral activity on 26 and possibly 27
     June.  Most of the activity is expected on 26 June following the
     arrival of the flare shock.  Although nothing particularly
     significant is anticipated, there is an outside chance for minor
     auroral storm conditions.

     Auroral activity is already enhanced and is visible over the high
     and polar latitude regions.  Lunar phase will not significantly
     inhibit attempts to view activity.

     This WATCH will remain active until 19:00 UT on 27 June when it will
     either be updated or allowed to expire.


**  End of Watch  **


