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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9306110023.AA16176@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WARNING: Watch Upgraded to a Warning following Shock Arrival
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 93 18:23:13 MDT
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                   MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

                      WATCH UPGRADED: 00:00 UT, 11 JUNE

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 12 JUNE

    HIGH RISK PERIOD: 11 Jun          (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 11 Jun - 12 Jun

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 3 DAYS: 42, 25, 18, (11 - 13 JUN)
(INPUT INTO THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  MODERATE - HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: 24 HOURS.

POTENTIAL LUNAR INTERFERENCE:  MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  FAIR - GOOD

APPROXIMATE OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS (LOCAL TIME): SUNSET TO 1:30 AM

AURORAL ACTIVITY _MAY_ BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        SOUTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO SOUTHERN WYOMING TO
        NEBRASKA TO ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO NORTHERN OHIO TO
        PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW JERSEY AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF DELAWARE.  ACTIVITY
        MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED FROM THE U.K. TO NORTHERN EUROPE INCLUDING THE
        NORTHERN PARTS OF BELGIUM, THE NETHERLANDS, GERMANY, POLAND AND
        NORTHERN RUSSIA.  SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO BE ABLE
        TO SPOT ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVITY PRIOR TO MOONRISE.

AURORAL ACTIVITY _SHOULD_ BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL
        MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN
        ONTARIO TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE TO
        MAINE.  MOST OF NORWAY, SWEDEN, AND FINLAND SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO
        OBSERVE ACTIVITY UNDER DARK SKIES.


* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.

SYNOPSIS...

     We are upgrading the Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch to a
     Warning.  The shock-front from the major flare of 07 June arrived at
     17:27 UTC on 10 June.  A significant increase in geomagnetic and auroral
     activity has accompanied the main phase of this storm, which commenced
     at approximately 20:30 UTC.  Expansion of the auroral ovals has been
     noted with an attendant increase in auroral emission luminosity.  This
     will aid in producing visible aurorae over the middle latitude regions.
     The disturbance should begin to wane by about 18:00 UTC on 11 June.
     Conditions should be frequently favorable for observing auroral activity
     over the middle latitude regions under dark skies.

     This warning will remain active until 19:00 UT on 12 June when it
     will either be updated or allowed to expire.


**  End of Warning  **


