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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9306101841.AA14525@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WATCH: Warning Downgraded to a Watch - 18Z/10 June
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 93 12:41:52 MDT
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Status: OR

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                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                    WARNING DOWNGRADED: 18:00 UT, 10 JUNE

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 12 JUNE

MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 10 - 11 JUNE (UT days)

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 3 DAYS: 25, 20, 15 (11 - 13 JUN)
(INPUT INTO THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  LOW - MODERATE

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: SUNSET TO 01:00 OR 01:30 AM LOCAL

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE:  MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        MOST OF THE NORTHERN U.S. STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA FROM SOUTHERN
        BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CENTRAL MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA TO
        MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO SOUTHERN MAINE AND POSSIBLY
        PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        NORTHERN U.K. TO THE NORTHERN EUROPEAN REGIONS INCLUDING MUCH OF
        THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF NORWAY, SWEDEN AND FINLAND, TO
        NORTHERN RUSSIA.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AUSTRALIAN AND NEW
        ZEALAND REGIONS MIGHT SPOT ACTIVITY.

* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.


SYNOPSIS...

     The Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Warning has been downgraded to a
     Watch.  The flare disturbance noted previously has not yet arrived.  It
     is becoming increasingly less likely that we will see this disturbance
     arrive, even though the associated major flare of 07 June had strong
     characteristics of a coronal mass ejection.  The tardiness of the
     disturbance translates into a lower transit velocity.  Therefore, if it
     arrives, it is not expected to produce activity as energetic as was
     originally forecasted.  However, we are still expecting auroral activity
     to become enhanced to levels that should become visible over many
     upper-middle latitude regions, due to possible combined effects of a
     solar coronal hole and the tardy flare-related disturbance.

     This WATCH will remain active until 19:00 UT on 12 June when it will
     either be updated or allowed to expire.


**  End of Watch  **


