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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9306081819.AA02665@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WARNING: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Warning
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 8 Jun 93 12:19:33 MDT
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                   MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

                          ISSUED: 17:30 UT, 08 JUNE

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 12 JUNE

    HIGH RISK PERIOD: 10 Jun - 11 Jun (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 09 Jun - 12 Jun

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 4 DAYS: 18, 40, 24, 16 (09 - 12 JUN)
(INPUT INTO THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  MODERATE - HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: 24 TO 36 HOURS.

POTENTIAL LUNAR INTERFERENCE:  MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  FAIR - GOOD

APPROXIMATE OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS (LOCAL TIME): SUNSET TO 12:30 AM

AURORAL ACTIVITY _MAY_ BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        SOUTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO SOUTHERN WYOMING TO
        NEBRASKA TO ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO NORTHERN OHIO TO
        PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW JERSEY AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF DELAWARE.  ACTIVITY
        MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED FROM THE U.K. TO NORTHERN EUROPE INCLUDING THE
        NORTHERN PARTS OF BELGIUM, THE NETHERLANDS, GERMANY, POLAND AND
        NORTHERN RUSSIA.  SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO BE ABLE
        TO SPOT ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVITY PRIOR TO MOONRISE.

AURORAL ACTIVITY _SHOULD_ BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL
        MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN
        ONTARIO TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE TO
        MAINE.  MOST OF NORWAY, SWEDEN, AND FINLAND SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO
        OBSERVE ACTIVITY UNDER DARK SKIES.


* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.

SYNOPSIS...

     A well-placed major class M5.4/2B solar flare occurred at 14:25 UTC on
     07 June that was associated with characteristics indicative of a coronal
     mass ejection.  There is a high probability this flare produced a
     disturbance that is presently in transit to the Earth.  The arrival of
     this disturbance is expected between approximately 18:00 UTC on 09 June
     and 10:00 UTC on 10 June.  It is expected to elevate levels of auroral
     activity to intensities that should be observable over many middle
     latitude regions during the local evening and early morning hours of
     09/10 June and possibly again on the evening of 10/11 June.  We aren't
     expecting a particularly intense episode of activity with this
     disturbance, although it should be enough to be observed from most of
     the northern U.S. states, northern Europe, and possibly southern
     portions of Australia and New Zealand.  It should be noted that this
     disturbance also has the potential to develop into a stronger event
     that could be observed equatorward of the estimated boundaries given
     above.  Those with the predictive auroral activity software should use
     inputs between 30 and 45 for the evening of 09/10 June to produce the
     most accurate anticipated maps of auroral activity.

     This warning will remain active until 19:00 UT on 12 June when it
     will either be updated or allowed to expire.

     For hourly ground-based sighting reports, use the Internet command:
     "finger aurora@xi.uleth.ca"  or  "finger aurora@142.66.3.29", or
     anonymously FTP to the site: xi.uleth.ca and grab the file
     "current.obs" in the directory "pub/solar/Aurora/current".

     Forecast confidence: 65 %


**  End of Warning  **


