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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9306050737.AA12232@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WATCH: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: 	Sat, 5 Jun 1993 10:37:11 +0300
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Status: OR

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                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                          ISSUED: 22:00 UT, 04 JUNE

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 06 JUNE

MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 05 - 06 JUNE (UT days)

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 3 DAYS: 30, 22, 17 (05 - 07 JUN)
(INPUT INTO THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  LOW - MODERATE

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE:  HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        MOST OF THE NORTHERN U.S. STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA FROM SOUTHERN
        BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CENTRAL MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA DAKOTA TO
        MINNESOTA TO MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO SOUTHERN MAINE
        AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        NORTHERN U.K. TO THE NORTHERN EUROPEAN REGIONS INCLUDING MUCH OF
        THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF NORWAY, SWEDEN AND FINLAND, TO
        NORTHERN RUSSIA.

* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.


SYNOPSIS...

     A minor auroral storm has formed that is permitting auroral activity to
     be observed over middle latitude regions, despite the rather strong
     phase of the moon.  A well-placed solar coronal hole is responsible for
     the disturbance producing this activity.  Activity is expected to
     gradually subside over the next three days, becoming relatively dormant
     and invisible to middle latitude sites by 07 June.  The amount of lunar
     interference will substantially hamper attempts to view activity.

     This WATCH will remain active until 19:00 UT on 06 June when it will
     either be updated or allowed to expire.


**  End of Watch  **


