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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 30 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: 	Tue, 1 Jun 1993 22:48:02 +0300
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  30 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 30 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 150, 05/30/93
10.7 FLUX=140    90-AVG=121        SSN=130      BKI=2211 1001  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=B4.1     FLU1=2.9E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2212 2222  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=010,018,008,006,006,002,001,008   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=01:005
 XRAY-MAX= M1.0   @ 0533UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.3   @ 0045UT   XRAY-AVG= B9.7
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55369NT @ 1324UT   BOUTF-MIN=55324NT @ 1747UT  BOUTF-AVG=55356NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+074,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+115NT@ 1719UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-073NT@ 0039UT  G6-AVG=+097,-017,-048
 FLUXFCST=STD:140,140,140;SESC:140,140,140 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=1113 3111 2214 4112  27DAY-AP=010,006   27DAY-KP=2134 3311 2121 2211
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.0@0533UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 29 MAY 93 was  70.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 29 MAY 93 are: 4o 3- 2+ 4-   1+ 2o 2+ 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7515 (N14E11)
       produced an M1.0/SF at 30/0533Z. This region also generated
       several small C-class subflares. The region has simplified
       magnetically, no longer having a delta configuration. New
       Region 7518 (S10E71) was numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Additional M-class flares are possible in
       Region 7515.

            The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled.

            Event probabilities 31 may-02 jun

                             Class M    50/50/50
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 31 may-02 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/10/10
                        Minor Storm           01/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                05/10/10
                        Minor Storm           01/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over most
       regions today.  Similar conditions should persist over the next
       three days.  There is a continuing chance for minor HF signal
       degradation due to SWFs from possible minor solar flares.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7512  N08W16  102  0120 DAI  10  024 BETA
7514  N17E04  082  0070 HAX  02  002 ALPHA
7515  N14E11  075  0300 EAI  13  045 BETA-GAMMA
7517  N08E38  048  0130 DAO  10  008 BETA
7518  S10E71  015  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7510  S24W65  151                    PLAGE
7513  N02W27  113                    PLAGE
7516  S10W41  127                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 31 MAY TO 02 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
7500 N17   348


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 30 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0505 0533 0547 7515 N16E18  M1.0  SF         180


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 30 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
11   S50E48 S50E48 S50E03 S24E17  062  ISO   NEG   024 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


