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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 29 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 30 May 93 9:21:17 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  29 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 29 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 149, 05/29/93
10.7 FLUX=129.0  90-AVG=121        SSN=130      BKI=3233 1222  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=B4.5     FLU1=3.1E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=4324 1223  PAI=012
  BOU-DEV=025,012,024,034,006,015,010,013   DEV-AVG=017 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.4   @ 1504UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.6   @ 2109UT   XRAY-AVG= B6.8
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55396NT @ 0154UT   BOUTF-MIN=55334NT @ 1755UT  BOUTF-AVG=55357NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+070,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1728UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-101NT@ 0209UT  G6-AVG=+095,-019,-051
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,140,140;SESC:135,140,140 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=1112 2111 1112 2111  27DAY-AP=007,010   27DAY-KP=2222 2222 2134 3311
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 28 MAY 93 was  60.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 28 MAY 93 are: 4- 4+ 3o 3+   3o 4- 3o 4- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7515 (N14E24) con-
       tinues to dominate the disk in size and flare productivity:
       numerous C-class events occurred during the period. This
       group has shown an increase in area and a strengthening of
       its magnetic delta configuration. The other regions on the
       disk were essentially stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       moderate. Isolated M-class flares are expected from Region 7515.
       The recent evolution of the group implies that there is now a
       slight chance for major flare activity as well.

            The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled.
       Brief, isolated active periods were reported by some sites.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled tomorrow and mostly unsettled
       for the remainder of the forecast period.

            Event probabilities 30 may-01 jun

                             Class M    65/65/65
                             Class X    15/15/15
                             Proton     05/05/10
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 30 may-01 jun

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  No significant changes are expected over the next
       three days, through 01 June inclusive.  Good propagation should
       prevail with a risk for SWF signal degradation over daylit
       paths due to minor M-class flare activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7510  S24W52  151  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7512  N08W04  103  0110 DAI  08  025 BETA
7513  N02W14  113  0010 BXO  02  005 BETA
7514  N17E16  083  0060 HAX  02  002 ALPHA
7515  N14E24  075  0270 EAI  12  030 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7517  N08E50  049  0080 DAO  10  007 BETA
7516  S10W28  127                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 30 MAY TO 01 JUNE
NMBR LAT    LO
7496 N16   009
7500 N17   348


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 29 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 29 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
10   S03W15 S12W21 S11W27 N14W21  124  ISO   POS   008 10830A
11   S38E56 S51E55 S46E13 S22E53  061  EXT   NEG   040 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


