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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 28 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 29 May 93 16:02:40 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  28 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 28 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 148, 05/28/93
10.7 FLUX=125.8  90-AVG=121        SSN=105      BKI=3333 3434  BAI=018
BGND-XRAY=B4.6     FLU1=2.8E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=4433 3434  PAI=020
  BOU-DEV=027,034,026,027,032,054,028,052   DEV-AVG=035 NT     SWF=01:014
 XRAY-MAX= M1.4   @ 0310UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.8   @ 1700UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55379NT @ 2313UT   BOUTF-MIN=55328NT @ 1713UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+067,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+132NT@ 1528UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-128NT@ 0230UT  G6-AVG=+096,-025,-065
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,130,135;SESC:125,130,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/020,010,010
    KFCST=1112 2111 1112 2111  27DAY-AP=010,007   27DAY-KP=3423 2222 2222 2222
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.4@0310UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 27 MAY 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 27 MAY 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Today's only M-class
       event was an optically uncorrelated M1.4 flare at 0310Z. Nearly
       all of today's occasional C-class flare activity came from
       Region 7515 (N13E37) suggesting this was a likely source for
       the M-event as well. The group continues to sport a complicated
       magnetic structure and shows evidence of a weak delta con-
       figuration.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low. There continues to be a fair chance for isolated
       M-class flares from Region 7515.

            The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active for the
       past 24 hours. Some brief isolated minor storm periods were
       observed at high latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods over
       the next 24 hours. Conditions should return to generally un-
       settled for the remainder of the forecast period.

            Event probabilities 29 may-31 may

                             Class M    35/35/35
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 29 may-31 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/10/10
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/10/10
                        Minor Storm           15/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  High and polar latitude paths saw occasional minor
       signal degradation during the local night sectors, but were
       otherwise near-normal.  Similar, if not improving conditions
       are expected over the next three days, through 31 May.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7512  N08E10  102  0150 DAI  08  027 BETA
7513  N02E05  107  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7514  N17E30  082  0060 HAX  02  002 ALPHA
7515  N13E37  075  0230 EAI  11  022 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7517  N08E63  049  0130 CAO  10  003 BETA
7510  S18W40  152                    PLAGE
7516  S10W15  127                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 29 MAY TO 31 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7496 N16   009
7500 N17   348


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 28 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0255 0310 0322              M1.4            31


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 28 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


