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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 27 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 27 May 93 21:43:20 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  27 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 27 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 147, 05/27/93
10.7 FLUX=119.5  90-AVG=121        SSN=097      BKI=2443 3223  BAI=015
BGND-XRAY=B4.9     FLU1=2.6E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2453 3233  PAI=018
  BOU-DEV=016,060,059,020,033,017,017,021   DEV-AVG=030 NT     SWF=01:004
 XRAY-MAX= M1.2   @ 1755UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.5   @ 0632UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55400NT @ 1201UT   BOUTF-MIN=55363NT @ 1901UT  BOUTF-AVG=55386NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+076,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+148NT@ 1821UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-128NT@ 0612UT  G6-AVG=+102,-025,-064
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,125,125;SESC:120,125,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/025,020,010
    KFCST=4434 4111 1112 2111  27DAY-AP=012,010   27DAY-KP=4322 3232 3423 2222
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.2/2B@1755UTC(7515);**SWEEP:II=1@0114-0118UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 26 MAY 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 26 MAY 93 are: 1- 1- 1- 1-   1o 2- 1o 3-


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7515 (N14E51)
       produced an M1.2/2B flare at 1755Z. This group produced
       numerous additional C-class flares and is the dominant region
       on the solar disk. The spots are arranged in a complicated
       beta-gamma structure which is abutted to the trailing part of
       7514 (N17E43). Region 7512 (N08E23) exhibited slow steady
       growth during the day but only produced a couple of subflares
       during the period.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low. There is a fair chance for an additional, isolated
       M-class flare from Region 7515.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels with
       minor storm periods at high latitudes. An initially quiet field
       became disturbed early on the 27th. Mostly active levels with
       minor storm periods at high latitude prevailed through the
       nighttime hours, but activity was running quiet to unsettled
       near the end of the period.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days. Some
       persistent effects from today's disturbance are expected to
       linger over the next 12 hours. Effects from a 28 degree fila-
       ment that disappeared on the 24th may lead to a continuation
       of active levels through day two. The geomagnetic field should
       return to generally unsettled levels by day three.

            Event probabilities 28 may-30 may

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 28 may-30 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                45/25/10
                        Minor Storm           20/10/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                45/25/10
                        Minor Storm           25/15/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal to slightly
       below-normal today.  High and polar latitude paths,
       particularly those paths transiting the auroral zones,
       experienced minor signal degradation due to enhanced levels of
       geomagnetic and auroral activity.  Similar conditions are
       expected over the next 48 hours (through about 29 May), but may
       persist beyond 30 May if the filament discussed above proves to
       be geoeffective.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7512  N08E23  103  0070 DSO  07  020 BETA
7513  N02E18  108  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7514  N17E43  083  0090 HSX  03  002 ALPHA
7515  N14E51  075  0190 DAI  10  023 BETA-GAMMA
7517  N08E74  052  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7510  S18W27  153                    PLAGE
7516  S10W02  128                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 28 MAY TO 30 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7496 N16   009
7502 S12   027


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 27 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0058 0122 0131 7515  N10E59 C5.4  1N               II
 0653 0654 0654                          160
 1745 1755 1802 7515  N12E53 M1.2  2B        65


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 27 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
27/ 0114              0118       N10E59   RSP    C5.4   33  1
27/A1701             B1714       N15E31   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
10   S07W07 S18W44 S18W44 N17W34  160  ISO   POS   018 10830A
11   S50E86 S55E86 S42E27 S20E57  069  ISO   NEG   046 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


