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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 26 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 27 May 93 0:14:59 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  26 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 26 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 146, 05/26/93
10.7 FLUX=107.5  90-AVG=121        SSN=088      BKI=0010 1102  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B3.4     FLU1=1.6E+06  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=1111 1213  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=004,004,008,004,006,006,004,019   DEV-AVG=006 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.2   @ 0200UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.6   @ 0154UT   XRAY-AVG= B6.5
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55393NT @ 1412UT   BOUTF-MIN=55351NT @ 1843UT  BOUTF-AVG=55381NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+093,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+141NT@ 1815UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-064NT@ 0342UT  G6-AVG=+115,-014,-042
 FLUXFCST=STD:115,115,120;SESC:115,115,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,020,015/015,035,020
    KFCST=1111 1111 4434 4334  27DAY-AP=009,012   27DAY-KP=1111 3333 4322 3232
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 25 MAY 93 was  81.7.
      The Full Kp Indices for 25 MAY 93 are: 1- 0+ 0+ 0+   1o 1o 2- 1- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. New Region 7515 (N14E63) was
       identified just behind 7514 (N16E56) and produced frequent
       C-class subflares and bright surging activity. Region 7515 is
       now the dominant group on the disk in terms of flare
       productivity and size (120 millionths D-type). Region 7514 was
       quieter than yesterday and was observed to produce only one
       subflare. Region 7512 (N08E36) showed modest growth but was
       quiet. The other regions were quiet and stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7515 is expected to be the main source of activity.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. An
       increase to active levels with minor storm conditions at high
       latitudes is expected late on the first day in response to a
       favorably positioned coronal hole. Conditions should decline
       to mostly unsettled levels with active periods at high
       latitudes by day three.

            Event probabilities 27 may-29 may

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 27 may-29 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                50/45/25
                        Minor Storm           15/20/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                50/45/25
                        Minor Storm           20/25/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

            HF propagation conditions continued to be normal over all
       regions today.  Similar conditions are expected on 27 May.  A
       coronal hole disturbance is anticipated on 28 and 29 May that
       should produce minor to occasionally moderate signal
       degradation over high and polar latitude paths (and upper
       middle latitude paths during the local night sectors).
       Conditions should begin returning to near-normal on 29 May.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7510  S18W14  153  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7512  N08E36  103  0050 CSO  08  008 BETA
7513  N03E28  111  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7514  N16E56  083  0090 CSO  04  004 BETA
7515  N14E63  076  0150 DAO  07  007 BETA
7516  S10E11  128  0010 BXO  04  006 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 27 MAY TO 29 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7496 N16   009
7502 S12   027
7499 S08   041


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 26 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0416 0419 0422              B8.9        110
 0515 0517 0517                          130
 0540 0543 0545              B6.2        160
 0704 0704 0704                          130
 0734 0741 0743              C1.1        200
 1220 1226 1232              C1.3        320


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 26 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
10   S05W02 S18W20 S05W28 N15W15  162  ISO   POS   011  10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


