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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 24 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 24 May 93 21:09:54 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  24 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 24 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 144, 05/24/93
10.7 FLUX=098.4  90-AVG=122        SSN=038      BKI=0120 0011  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B2.4     FLU1=1.3E+06  FLU10=1.4E+04  PKI=0021 1111  PAI=003
  BOU-DEV=002,006,014,003,004,002,006,008   DEV-AVG=005 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.7   @ 1606UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.0   @ 0155UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.2
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55391NT @ 1330UT   BOUTF-MIN=55360NT @ 1920UT  BOUTF-AVG=55380NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+084,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 1501UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-067NT@ 0328UT  G6-AVG=+106,-015,-044
 FLUXFCST=STD:100,100,100;SESC:095,095,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=2213 3111 2213 3111  27DAY-AP=005,005   27DAY-KP=2121 2221 2111 2221
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 23 MAY 93 was  67.7.
      The Full Kp Indices for 23 MAY 93 are: 1o 1- 1- 1o   1+ 1o 2- 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was at low levels. There were two
       C1-class flare events. Both were optically uncorrelated. One
       of the C-class flares erupted at 0326 UT and the other at
       1606 UT.

       STD: The Big Bear Solar Observatory reports that an emerging
       flux region (EFR) has been developing near the northwest end of
       the very large filament in the southeast quadrant of the solar
       disk.  If development continues, it may eventually trigger the
       eruption of the filament, which lies approximately 7 degrees
       away from the EFR.  Also, a minor eruptive prominence was noted
       on the southwest limb near S22 between 1646 and 1729 UT.  A
       positive polarity transequatorial coronal hole was beginning to
       cross the central meridian late in the UT day.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at low levels.

       STD: Low-level uncorrelated B and weak C-class x-ray flare
       activity has continued to increase over the last 24 hours and
       is expected to continue.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 25 may-27 may

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 25 may-27 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  MUFs remain depressed between approximately 20 and 30
       percent due to a weaker ionosphere.  Similar conditions are
       expected over the next three days, through 27 May inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7510  S19E12  153  0010 HRX  01  001 ALPHA
7512  N08E63  102  0010 BXO  04  004 BETA
7513  N03E54  111  0010 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
7505  N13W66  231                    PLAGE
7507  N10W35  200                    PLAGE
7509  S18W80  245                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 25 MAY TO 27 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7499 S08   041


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 24 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 2136 2136 2137                          120


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 24 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
24/B1646             B1729       S22W90   EPL


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
10   S10E14 S15E05 S12W01 N18E10  161  ISO   POS   008 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


