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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 22 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: 	Sun, 23 May 1993 08:25:57 +0300
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  22 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 22 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 142, 05/22/93
10.7 FLUX=091.8  90-AVG=123        SSN=022      BKI=0101 0011  BAI=001
BGND-XRAY=A9.0     FLU1=1.4E+06  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=1111 1222  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=002,009,003,008,002,002,006,006   DEV-AVG=004 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.7   @ 2305UT    XRAY-MIN= A7.3   @ 0143UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55394NT @ 1246UT   BOUTF-MIN=55351NT @ 1747UT  BOUTF-AVG=55383NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+000,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+147NT@ 1619UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-071NT@ 0112UT  G6-AVG=+113,-013,-044
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,100,100;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=2213 3111 2213 3112  27DAY-AP=013,007   27DAY-KP=3344 2232 1232 2222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 21 MAY 93 was  66.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 21 MAY 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

            Solar activity was at very low levels.

            STD: Background x-ray levels appear to be slowly rising.
       Low-level B-class flare activity has also increased slightly.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at very low to low levels.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 23 may-25 may

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 23 may-25 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Good propagation is expected to continue for the next 72 hours,
       through 25 May inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7504  N10W84  276  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7510  S17E38  154  0010 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7505  N13W40  232                    PLAGE
7506  N10W78  270                    PLAGE
7507  N10W09  201                    PLAGE
7509  S18W54  246                    PLAGE
7511  S13W68  260                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 23 MAY TO 25 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 22 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 22 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
10   S05E52 S18E26 S14E18 N24E36  156  ISO   POS   009 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


