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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 22 May 93 11:30:48 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  21 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 141, 05/21/93
10.7 FLUX=091.0  90-AVG=123        SSN=034      BKI=0001 1211  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=A7.7     FLU1=8.6E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=1011 1211  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=011,003,003,009,006,013,005,006   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B1.2   @ 0710UT    XRAY-MIN= A7.4   @ 2108UT   XRAY-AVG= A8.5
NEUTN-MAX= +009%  @ 1235UT   NEUTN-MIN= +009%  @ 1235UT  NEUTN-AVG= +9.0%
  PCA-MAX= -0.2DB @ 1235UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1235UT    PCA-AVG= -0.2DB
BOUTF-MAX=55397NT @ 1344UT   BOUTF-MIN=55359NT @ 1801UT  BOUTF-AVG=55384NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+000,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1726UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-074NT@ 0059UT  G6-AVG=+102,-014,-046
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,095;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=2213 3112 2213 3112  27DAY-AP=008,013   27DAY-KP=3222 3322 3344 2232
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 20 MAY 93 was  56.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 20 MAY 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was at very low levels. Two filaments
       disappeared over the last 24 hours. The first DSF was located
       at (N24W15) and detected at 2038 UT, and the second DSF was in
       Region 7504 (N07W65) and detected at 1600 UT.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low levels.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 22 may-24 may

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 may-24 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar good propagation conditions should continue for at
       least the next three days (through 24 May inclusive).  There is
       only a remote and unlikely chance that todays disappearing
       filament at W15 will degrade propagation over the high and
       polar latitude paths near 24 May.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7504  N10W70  275  0030 HRX  02  002 ALPHA
7506  N10W65  270  0010 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7510  S18E50  155  0010 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7505  N13W27  232                    PLAGE
7507  N10E04  201                    PLAGE
7509  S18W41  246                    PLAGE
7511  S13W55  260                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 22 MAY TO 24 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 21 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
20/A2038            B20/2245     N24W15   DSF
21/A1604            B21/1716     N07W65   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
10   S05E72 S14E52 S13E37 N05E50  158  ISO   POS   015 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


