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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 20 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 20 May 93 22:40:29 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  20 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 20 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 140, 05/20/93
10.7 FLUX=091.1  90-AVG=123        SSN=048      BKI=2243 2321  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=A7.6     FLU1=1.3E+06  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2243 2221  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=016,018,066,032,016,025,011,005   DEV-AVG=023 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B1.8   @ 1636UT    XRAY-MIN= A6.8   @ 0903UT   XRAY-AVG= A8.7
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55397NT @ 2345UT   BOUTF-MIN=55349NT @ 1705UT  BOUTF-AVG=55382NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+086,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+121NT@ 1442UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-082NT@ 0228UT  G6-AVG=+096,-016,-049
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,100;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=2224 4222 2224 4222  27DAY-AP=011,008   27DAY-KP=3333 1333 3222 3322
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 19 MAY 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 19 MAY 93 are: 2- 2o 3+ 3-   2+ 2+ 3- 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. The largest region
       on the disk is Region 7504 (N10W59) with an area of 0050
       millionth. Furthermore, it is starting to show signs of
       steady decay.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at very low to low levels.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to active levels. The active levels
       are expected to occur during local night time.

            Event probabilities 21 may-23 may

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 21 may-23 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over most
       regions.  High and polar latitude paths saw periods of minor
       signal degradation during the local night sectors attributed to
       isolated periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity.  Propagation
       is expected to continue near-normal over most regions for the
       next three days at least (through 23 May inclusive).  There are
       no anticipated disturbances expected in the next 3 to 5 days.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7504  N10W57  275  0040 HSX  01  002 ALPHA
7506  N10W50  268  0010 HRX  01  001 ALPHA
7510  S18E64  154  0010 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7511  S13W42  260  0000 AXX  02  004 ALPHA
7505  N13W14  232                    PLAGE
7507  N10E17  201                    PLAGE
7509  S18W28  246                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 21 MAY TO 23 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7497 S07   119


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 20 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 20 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
09   S19W63 S33W65 S24W90 S19W63  287  ISO   POS   015 10830A
10   S01E70 S14E63 S13E52 N20E65  153  ISO   POS   014 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


