From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Thu May 20 08:28:40 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA27115
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Thu, 20 May 1993 08:28:39 +0300
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA01198; Thu, 20 May 1993 08:28:06 +0300
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA01178; Thu, 20 May 1993 08:27:31 +0300
Return-Path: <oler@rho.uleth.ca>
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA24523; Wed, 19 May 93 23:27:03 -0600
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9305200527.AA24523@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 19 May 93 23:26:58 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
X-Charset: FI
X-Char-Esc: 29
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 776
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  19 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 139, 05/19/93
10.7 FLUX=090.9  90-AVG=124        SSN=047      BKI=1243 2231  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=A9.5     FLU1=7.1E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2233 2232  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=006,015,045,020,017,015,025,005   DEV-AVG=018 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.1   @ 0801UT    XRAY-MIN= A7.4   @ 2240UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0000UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 0000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT     PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55397NT @ 1257UT   BOUTF-MIN=55352NT @ 1909UT  BOUTF-AVG=55381NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+000,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+131NT@ 1558UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-090NT@ 0251UT  G6-AVG=+095,-018,-050
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,100,100;SESC:095,100,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=2213 3112 2213 3112  27DAY-AP=017,011   27DAY-KP=4332 3343 3333 1333
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 18 MAY 93 was  70.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 18 MAY 93 are: 2o 2- 1o 2-   2- 2- 3- 3+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low by virtue of a single uncorrelated
       C1.1 x-ray burst at 19/0801UT. Region 7504 (N10W45) remains the
       most interesting region on the sun but has only produced a
       B3/SF flare at 19/0451UT and a B5/SF flare at 19/1027UT.
       Regions 7510 (S18E74) and 7511 (S13W29) were numbered today.

       STD: Old Region 7497, which was associated with strong Ca XV
       emissions as it departed the west limb about two weeks ago, is
       due to return over the next 2 to 3 days, near 21 May.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7504 has a chance for isolated class C
       flare activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours. A brief active period was noted at
       19/0900UT at high and middle latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the entire forecast
       period.

            Event probabilities 20 may-22 may

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 may-22 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/15
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar good propagation is expected to persist over
       the next 3 days, through 22 May inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7504  N10W45  276  0050 HAX  02  003 ALPHA
7509  S18W15  246  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7510  S18E74  157  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7511  S13W29  260  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7505  N13W01  232                    PLAGE
7506  N14W33  264                    PLAGE
7507  N10E30  201                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 20 MAY TO 22 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7490 N06   133
7497 S07   119


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 19 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


