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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 18 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 19 May 93 10:20:14 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  18 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 18 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 138, 05/18/93
10.7 FLUX=091.3  90-AVG=124        SSN=039      BKI=0112 2122  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B1.3     FLU1=1.3E+06  FLU10=1.4E+04  PKI=2212 2233  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=004,006,009,012,014,008,013,018   DEV-AVG=010 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B4.0   @ 0352UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.0   @ 2359UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.6
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1015UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1335UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 1335UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1050UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55396NT @ 1222UT   BOUTF-MIN=55371NT @ 1906UT  BOUTF-AVG=55385NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+000,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+137NT@ 1628UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-077NT@ 2240UT  G6-AVG=+105,-015,-049
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,100,100;SESC:095,100,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/015,010,010
    KFCST=2214 4112 2213 3112  27DAY-AP=027,017   27DAY-KP=4454 3433 4332 3343
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 17 MAY 93 was  69.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 17 MAY 93 are: 3+ 3+ 2- 2+   2+ 2+ 3+ 4- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7504 (N10W32)
       produced an optical subfaint flare today with no x-rays noted.
       No other activity was noted. Region 7509 (S17W05) was numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours then
       quiet.

            Event probabilities 19 may-21 may

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 19 may-21 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar conditions are expected over the next 72 hours, through
       21 May inclusive.  High latitude paths should see fair
       propagation, while middle and low latitude paths should observe
       mostly good to propagation.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7504  N10W32  277  0070 CAO  03  004 BETA
7506  N14W20  265  0010 BXO  04  003 BETA
7509  S17W05  250  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7503  S03W52  297                    PLAGE
7505  N13E12  233                    PLAGE
7507  N10E43  202                    PLAGE
7508  N17W00  245                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 19 MAY TO 21 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7488 S19   153
7490 N09   133
7497 S07   119


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 18 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 18 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
17/A1717            18/B1042    N24E23     DSF
17/A1717            18/B1355    N10E65     DSF
18/ 0257     0352      0522                LDE   B4.0  145


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


