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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9305180518.AA12328@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 17 May 93 23:18:16 MDT
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  17 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 137, 05/17/93
10.7 FLUX=096.2  90-AVG=124        SSN=049      BKI=3423 2244  BAI=016
BGND-XRAY=B1.7     FLU1=1.1E+06  FLU10=1.6E+04  PKI=3322 2234  PAI=013
  BOU-DEV=034,050,010,026,013,012,045,052   DEV-AVG=030 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B4.1   @ 2009UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.6   @ 0857UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.0
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1520UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2025UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2305UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 1845UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55401NT @ 0334UT   BOUTF-MIN=55371NT @ 1713UT  BOUTF-AVG=55388NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+000,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+129NT@ 1905UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-108NT@ 0311UT  G6-AVG=+095,-015,-052
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,095,100;SESC:090,095,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/020,015,010
    KFCST=2214 4112 2214 4112  27DAY-AP=025,027   27DAY-KP=3644 4333 4454 3433
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 16 MAY 93 was  65.9.
      The Full Kp Indices for 16 MAY 93 are: 3- 5- 1- 2o   3- 2- 2- 3o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. There was no activity
       of significance today. Region 7508 (N17E13) was numbered today.

       STD: Moderate Ca XV emissions were observed throughout the
       weekend, increasing to extremely intense levels today as Region
       7500 (N17W92) rotated out of view around the west limb.  The
       departure of this region has left the disk void of interesting
       spot groups.  Within the next 3 to 4 days (around 21 to 22
       May), old Region 7497 is due to rotate back into view around
       the southeast limb near S08.  This group was first numbered on
       04 May and showed rapid growth to a DAO optical configuration
       of 110 millionths on 06 May before departing the west limb on
       08 May.  Strong Ca XV emissions were associated with the
       west-limb transit of this Region on 07 May.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active for the next 12 hours then
       quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period.

       STD: The anticipated shock from the M4.4 flare could arrive
       over the next 24 hours (on 18 May), bringing the field to
       active levels, with a chance for periods of minor storming over
       the higher latitudes.

            Event probabilities 18 may-20 may

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 may-20 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           20/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Instabilities continued over the high and polar
       latitude paths.  Similar conditions should persist over the
       next 72 hours with slightly stronger signal degradation
       possible over the high and polar latitude paths during the
       next 24 to 48 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7504  N10W18  276  0070 CSO  04  004 BETA
7506  N14W06  264  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7507  N10E56  202  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7508  N17E13  245  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7503  S03W39  297                    PLAGE
7505  N13E25  233                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 18 MAY TO 20 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7488 S19   153
7490 N09   133


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
17/B0018             B1238       N08W67   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
09   S14W40 S27W46 S20W62 S13W49  306  ISO   POS   009 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Tue May 18 08:56:46 1993
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Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA12328; Mon, 17 May 93 23:18:21 -0600
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9305180518.AA12328@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 17 May 93 23:18:16 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
X-Charset: FI
X-Char-Esc: 29
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 772
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  17 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 137, 05/17/93
10.7 FLUX=096.2  90-AVG=124        SSN=049      BKI=3423 2244  BAI=016
BGND-XRAY=B1.7     FLU1=1.1E+06  FLU10=1.6E+04  PKI=3322 2234  PAI=013
  BOU-DEV=034,050,010,026,013,012,045,052   DEV-AVG=030 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B4.1   @ 2009UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.6   @ 0857UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.0
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1520UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2025UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2305UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 1845UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55401NT @ 0334UT   BOUTF-MIN=55371NT @ 1713UT  BOUTF-AVG=55388NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+000,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+129NT@ 1905UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-108NT@ 0311UT  G6-AVG=+095,-015,-052
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,095,100;SESC:090,095,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/020,015,010
    KFCST=2214 4112 2214 4112  27DAY-AP=025,027   27DAY-KP=3644 4333 4454 3433
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 16 MAY 93 was  65.9.
      The Full Kp Indices for 16 MAY 93 are: 3- 5- 1- 2o   3- 2- 2- 3o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. There was no activity
       of significance today. Region 7508 (N17E13) was numbered today.

       STD: Moderate Ca XV emissions were observed throughout the
       weekend, increasing to extremely intense levels today as Region
       7500 (N17W92) rotated out of view around the west limb.  The
       departure of this region has left the disk void of interesting
       spot groups.  Within the next 3 to 4 days (around 21 to 22
       May), old Region 7497 is due to rotate back into view around
       the southeast limb near S08.  This group was first numbered on
       04 May and showed rapid growth to a DAO optical configuration
       of 110 millionths on 06 May before departing the west limb on
       08 May.  Strong Ca XV emissions were associated with the
       west-limb transit of this Region on 07 May.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active for the next 12 hours then
       quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period.

       STD: The anticipated shock from the M4.4 flare could arrive
       over the next 24 hours (on 18 May), bringing the field to
       active levels, with a chance for periods of minor storming over
       the higher latitudes.

            Event probabilities 18 may-20 may

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 may-20 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           20/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Instabilities continued over the high and polar
       latitude paths.  Similar conditions should persist over the
       next 72 hours with slightly stronger signal degradation
       possible over the high and polar latitude paths during the
       next 24 to 48 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7504  N10W18  276  0070 CSO  04  004 BETA
7506  N14W06  264  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7507  N10E56  202  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7508  N17E13  245  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7503  S03W39  297                    PLAGE
7505  N13E25  233                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 18 MAY TO 20 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7488 S19   153
7490 N09   133


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
17/B0018             B1238       N08W67   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
09   S14W40 S27W46 S20W62 S13W49  306  ISO   POS   009 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


