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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 16 May 93 23:50:36 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  16 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 136, 05/16/93
10.7 FLUX=098.8  90-AVG=125        SSN=062      BKI=2512 3213  BAI=013
BGND-XRAY=B2.2     FLU1=1.7E+06  FLU10=2.3E+04  PKI=3512 3223  PAI=012
  BOU-DEV=018,079,009,018,024,012,009,025   DEV-AVG=024 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.1   @ 0502UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.9   @ 2107UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.4
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2250UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1745UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2315UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2000UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55405NT @ 0350UT   BOUTF-MIN=55370NT @ 1736UT  BOUTF-AVG=55385NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+000,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+127NT@ 1820UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-099NT@ 0324UT  G6-AVG=+100,-016,-053
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,090,095;SESC:095,090,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,015/020,025,015
    KFCST=4434 4334 2224 4222  27DAY-AP=011,025   27DAY-KP=3223 3323 3644 4333
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 15 MAY 93 was  67.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 15 MAY 93 are: 2+ 1+ 3o 3-   3- 2+ 4- 3o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. A single uncorrelated C1.1
       x-ray burst was noted at 16/0451UT. Region 7500 (N17W79) is
       still the most impressive region on the disk as it rotates off
       the sun and decays. Regions 7506 (N13E05) and 7507 (N11E70)
       were numbered today.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7500 has the best potential for C-class activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. Mid latitude stations saw a
       brief period of minor storming at 16/0600UT.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled due largely to an expected
       shock front passage resulting from the M4.4/2B flare of 14 May
       and a small but favorably positioned coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 17 may-19 may

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 may-19 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/35/35
                        Minor Storm           20/20/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Occasional minor signal degradation persisted over the high and
       polar latitude paths.  Similar conditions should continue
       through 17 May.  A disturbance associated with the M4.4 flare
       of 14 May is expected to produced stronger signal degradations
       (although nothing particularly severe) on 18 May.  The
       disturbance should last approximately 24 to 36 hours before
       subsiding.  High and polar latitude paths should be affected
       the most.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7500  N17W79  350  0090 DAO  06  003 BETA
7504  N09W06  277  0070 HSX  02  003 ALPHA
7505  N13E38  233  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7506  N13E05  266  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7507  N11E70  201  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7503  S03W26  297                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 17 MAY TO 19 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7488 S19   153


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 16 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
08   N31W54 S01W72 N10W73 N33W64  344  ISO   POS   010 10830A
09   S20W27 S24W43 S19W52 S12W41  310  ISO   POS   010 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


