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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 15 May 93 23:53:07 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  15 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 135, 05/15/93
10.7 FLUX=104.4  90-AVG=125        SSN=053      BKI=2122 2332  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=B2.4     FLU1=5.1E+06  FLU10=7.6E+04  PKI=2133 3243  PAI=012
  BOU-DEV=017,007,019,016,018,022,031,017   DEV-AVG=018 NT     SWF=01:001
 XRAY-MAX= M1.0   @ 0001UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.2   @ 2303UT   XRAY-AVG= B8.0
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 2200UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2230UT  NEUTN-AVG= +1.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 0325UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1140UT    PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55398NT @ 0015UT   BOUTF-MIN=55357NT @ 1722UT  BOUTF-AVG=55384NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+000,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+135NT@ 1729UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-081NT@ 0124UT  G6-AVG=+105,-016,-050
 FLUXFCST=STD:100,095,090;SESC:100,095,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,020,015/015,020,025
    KFCST=4434 4334 4434 4334  27DAY-AP=019,011   27DAY-KP=3544 3322 3223 3323
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**PROTNENH
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 14 MAY 93 was  67.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 14 MAY 93 are: 2o 3- 3- 4-   5+ 3o 3- 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate by virtue of a single
       M4.4/2B tenflare at 14/2301UT in Region 7500 (N17W64). The
       flare had associated Type II and Type IV radio bursts and
       produced a loop prominence system shortly after it ended.
       Region 7500 has been stable since this flare and shows
       significant decay over past 24 hours. It is the only
       interesting group on the disk.

       STD: Protons at greater than 10 MeV remained elevated slightly
       above background levels after reaching a peak enhanced flux of
       around 3 to 4 pfu (see the daily summary report for 14 May for
       details).  Protons had returned to near background levels by
       the end of the UT day.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7500 has the potential for class C flaring but
       little chance for another significant flare.  Region 7496
       (N15W85) still has an outside chance for an isolated class C
       flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled for the first 24 hours of the
       forecast period then unsettled to active because of a favorably
       positioned coronal hole and an anticipated shock from the M4/2B
       flare in Region 7500. High latitude stations may see minor
       storming within 48 hours.

            Event probabilities 16 may-18 may

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 may-18 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/40/25
                        Minor Storm           20/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over most regions
       with only occasional sporadic minor signal degradation over the
       high and polar latitude paths.  Slightly stronger signal
       degradation may be observed over the next three days (16 to 18
       May inclusive).  A well placed coronal hole combined with
       anticipated effects from yesterdays influential flare activity
       could produce poor to very poor propagation over the high and
       polar latitude paths, good (during the day) to occasionally poor
       propagation (during the night) over the middle latitude paths,
       and mostly good to possibly occasionally fair propagation
       (during the local night sectors) over the low latitude paths.
       Strongest signal degradation is expected on 18 May which should
       be followed thereafter by gradual improvements over all
       regions.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7496  N15W85  009  0090 CSO  08  003 BETA
7500  N17W64  348  0100 DSO  07  007 BETA
7504  N09E07  277  0060 HSX  02  002 ALPHA
7505  N13E51  233  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7503  S03W13  297                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 MAY TO 18 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
15/A0220             B2319       S23E45   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
08   N30W39 S05W56 N05W69 N35W49  342  ISO   POS   022 10830A
09   S28W12 S28W12 S23W36 S13W35  313  ISO   POS   010 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


