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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: 	Sun, 16 May 1993 00:12:17 +0300
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  14 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 134, 05/14/93
10.7 FLUX=112.1  90-AVG=126        SSN=072      BKI=2324 5222  BAI=015
BGND-XRAY=B3.2     FLU1=2.9E+06  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2334 5332  PAI=017
  BOU-DEV=011,033,018,062,094,019,014,010   DEV-AVG=032 NT     SWF=02:089
 XRAY-MAX= M4.4   @ 2301UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.5   @ 2102UT   XRAY-AVG= C2.0
NEUTN-MAX= +005%  @ 1845UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0410UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.9%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 2350UT     PCA-MIN= -0.9DB @ 2255UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55399NT @ 2342UT   BOUTF-MIN=55352NT @ 1745UT  BOUTF-AVG=55382NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+000,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+158NT@ 1409UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-102NT@ 0426UT  G6-AVG=+104,-016,-055
 FLUXFCST=STD:110,105,100;SESC:110,105,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/015,020,020
    KFCST=3344 3333 3344 3333  27DAY-AP=010,019   27DAY-KP=2333 2232 3544 3322
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*PROTON
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M4.4/2B@2301,N19W48(7500);**SWEEP:II=3,IV=3@2244UTC;
          **TENFLR:970SFU@2244UTC,DUR=37MIN
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 13 MAY 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 13 MAY 93 are: 3+ 2+ 1+ 2-   1+ 2o 3- 2+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7500 (N18W51) produced a
       single C-class subflare while displaying minor decay. Region
       7496 (N15W71) continued to decay at a gradual pace. New Region
       7505 (N12E63) was numbered.

       STD: A strong minor class M4.4/2B tenflare erupted late in the
       UT day out of Region 7500 at 14/2301Z.  The flare was
       associated with a 970 sfu tenflare that lasted 37 minutes and
       strong Types II and IV sweeps.  The estimated shock velocity of
       the Type II was 600 km/sec.  This flare had an attractive
       long-decay x-ray signature and was precedued by an unusual M1.2
       precursor event.  The precursor had an impulsive initial phase
       that was followed by a gradual main phase, as observed in soft
       x-rays.  A potential satellite proton enhancement warning for
       protons at greater than 10 MeV was sent out at 14/2350Z.
       Protons at greater than 10 MeV began arriving at 15/0045Z.  A
       preliminary maximum flux of approximately 4 pfu was observed at
       15/0150Z with a primary average flux of around 2 pfu.  There
       was no notable response in protons with energies greater than
       100 MeV.  Protons have slowly decayed since then and are
       expected to return to near (or very slightly above) background
       levels by the end of 15 May.  It is doubtful that this region
       will produce another similar event before it rotates behind the
       west limb.

       The National Solar Observatory reported moderate Ca XV emissions on
       both the northwest and southwest limbs today, centered near N12 and
       S18 respectively.  Stronger emissions are likely to be observed over
       the northwest limb during the weekend as Regions 7496 and 7500
       transit.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7500 could produce an isolated C-class
       subflare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels
       for the past 24 hours. The active to minor storm conditions
       were observed at all latitudes from 14/0900-1500Z and were
       probably due to coronal hole effects.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at unsettled to active levels. Intermittent
       periods of minor storming may also occur due to continuing
       coronal hole effects.

       STD: There is strong evidence to believe that this flare
       was part of a coronal mass ejection.  Active to minor
       geomagnetic storming is expected to accompany this disturbance
       if it arrives.  Best estimates place the time of arrival of
       this disturbance sometime late on 17 May or (preferably) on
       18 May.

            Event probabilities 15 may-17 may

                             Class M    20/15/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 15 may-17 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/35/35
                        Minor Storm           20/20/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/10

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions today.  Occasional minor signal degradation was
       reported during the local night sectors due to sporadically
       enhanced levels of geomagnetic and auroral activity.  This
       mostly affected the night-sector paths of the higher latitudes.
       A moderate SWF was reported in conjunction with the minor
       M4.4/2B tenflare that was in progress late in the UT day.  The
       related coronal mass ejection associated with this flare is
       expected to produce minor to moderate signal degradation over
       the high and polar latitude signal paths (extending to the
       middle-latitude paths during the local night-sectors) on 18 May
       after the associated disturbance arrives.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7496  N15W71  009  0170 DAO  10  009 BETA
7500  N18W50  348  0190 DAI  08  019 BETA
7504  N08E21  277  0090 HSX  03  003 ALPHA
7505  N12E63  235  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7502  S12W89  027                    PLAGE
7503  S03W00  298                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 15 MAY TO 17 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 14 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 2154 2301 2328 7500  N19W48 M4.4  2B     42 970    II/IV



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 14 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
14/ 2250              2307                RSP    M4.4   94  3  3


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
08   N22W30 S08W37 N10W49 N22W30  013  ISO   POS   002 10830A
09   S13W00 S25W15 S19W32 S10W15  312  ISO   POS   014 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


