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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 13 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 13 May 93 21:03:22 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  13 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 133, 05/13/93
10.7 FLUX=119.8  90-AVG=126        SSN=093      BKI=3200 1022  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B3.5     FLU1=7.2E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3212 1232  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=030,019,004,003,008,004,012,014   DEV-AVG=011 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C9.7   @ 1123UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.9   @ 1935UT   XRAY-AVG= B6.4
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1835UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 0215UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2325UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2025UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55405NT @ 0158UT   BOUTF-MIN=55364NT @ 1747UT  BOUTF-AVG=55387NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+000,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+130NT@ 1850UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-122NT@ 0127UT  G6-AVG=+095,-017,-059
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,120,115;SESC:120,120,115 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/020,015,020
    KFCST=3344 3333 3344 3333  27DAY-AP=015,010   27DAY-KP=3533 3222 2333 2232
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 12 MAY 93 was  47.5.
      The Full Kp Indices for 12 MAY 93 are: 3- 3o 3o 3-   3o 3o 3+ 3o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. The largest event of the
       period was an optically uncorrelated C9.7 x-ray burst. Region
       7500 (N18W38) produced several subflares, three of which
       reached C-class. No significant changes were observed within
       this region despite its activity. Region 7496 (N16W58) showed
       minor decay and produced a single subflare. No new regions were
       numbered.

       STD: Both Regions 7496 and 7500 have lost their delta
       configurations.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7500 is capable of isolated M-class
       activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at unsettled to active levels. Periods of minor
       storming may occur, particularly at high latitudes, due to
       coronal hole effects.

            Event probabilities 14 may-16 may

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 14 may-16 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/35/35
                        Minor Storm           20/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/10

            HF propagation conditions have been normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions are expected over the next 72
       hours, although there is an increased chance for minor signal
       degradation over the high and polar latitude paths during the
       next three days (through 16 May inclusive) due to coronal
       effects.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7496  N16W58  009  0230 DAI  10  014 BETA
7500  N18W38  349  0300 DAI  10  035 BETA
7503  S03E13  298  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7504  N08E33  278  0070 HAX  01  002 ALPHA
7502  S12W76  027                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 MAY TO 16 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
08   N30W17 S03W26 N07W35 N32W24  341  ISO   POS   012 10830A
09   S15E16 S24E09 S17W15 S10E07  310  ISO   POS   014 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


