From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Thu May 13 07:44:57 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA14465
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Thu, 13 May 1993 07:44:55 +0300
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA15207; Thu, 13 May 1993 07:43:21 +0300
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA15190; Thu, 13 May 1993 07:42:02 +0300
Return-Path: <oler@rho.uleth.ca>
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA17236; Wed, 12 May 93 22:41:38 -0600
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9305130441.AA17236@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 12 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 12 May 93 22:41:35 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
X-Charset: FI
X-Char-Esc: 29
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 761
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  12 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 12 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 132, 05/12/93
10.7 FLUX=126.4  90-AVG=126        SSN=126      BKI=2333 2342  BAI=013
BGND-XRAY=B4.0     FLU1=1.2E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3333 3333  PAI=014
  BOU-DEV=010,025,027,024,014,036,048,018   DEV-AVG=025 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.2   @ 1801UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.1   @ 2032UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.8
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 1815UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 0705UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 2130UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 1955UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55405NT @ 2332UT   BOUTF-MIN=55360NT @ 2021UT  BOUTF-AVG=55383NT
GOES7-MAX=-9999NT@ -31080UT   GOES7-MIN=+9999NT@ 0324UT  G7-AVG=+000,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+118NT@ 1808UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-108NT@ 2351UT  G6-AVG=+092,-017,-055
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,130,130;SESC:130,130,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,015/010,020,020
    KFCST=2224 4222 2224 4222  27DAY-AP=029,015   27DAY-KP=4555 2244 3533 3222
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 11 MAY 93 was  48.6.
      The Full Kp Indices for 11 MAY 93 are: 2+ 3- 2o 2-   2o 2- 2+ 2+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was at low levels. Region 7500 (N18W24)
       remains the largest region on the disk, but it is starting to
       decrease in area. During this forecast period Region 7500
       activity increased by erupting with four C-class flares.
       Region 7496's (N17W45) magnetic classification has changed from
       beta-gamma-delta to beta-delta. Furthermore, Region 7496 is
       showing signs of decay.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at low to moderate levels.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Active levels
       are expected at high latitudes on the final two days of
       this forecast period.

            Event probabilities 13 may-15 may

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 13 may-15 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/20/20
                        Minor Storm           05/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/25/25
                        Minor Storm           10/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/10/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Occasional minor signal degradation occurred over
       some high and polar latitude paths (most notably for paths
       transiting or approaching the auroral zones) due to sporadic
       periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity.  Otherwise,
       propagation was near-normal. Similar conditions are expected
       over the next 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7496  N16W45  009  0300 DAI  10  023 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7499  S08W81  045  0060 CAO  11  004 BETA
7500  N18W25  349  0390 EAI  11  029 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7502  S12W63  027  0040 CAO  04  004 BETA
7503  S04E27  297  0010 BXO  04  003 BETA
7504  N09E49  275  0090 CAO  06  003 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 13 MAY TO 15 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7477 N12   230


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 12 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1952 1953 1953                          150


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 12 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


