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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 11 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 12 May 93 0:06:10 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  11 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 11 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 131, 05/11/93
10.7 FLUX=132.0  90-AVG=127        SSN=132      BKI=1111 0122  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=B4.0     FLU1=2.7E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2322 2222  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=006,007,008,007,004,008,010,014   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.1   @ 2207UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.6   @ 1656UT   XRAY-AVG= B6.2
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1655UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2350UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2235UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 2325UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55396NT @ 1238UT   BOUTF-MIN=55377NT @ 1731UT  BOUTF-AVG=55388NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+000,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+118NT@ 1525UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-091NT@ 0303UT  G6-AVG=+098,-017,-056
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,135,135;SESC:135,135,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/010,010,020
    KFCST=2213 3112 2213 3112  27DAY-AP=021,029   27DAY-KP=3554 1233 4555 2244
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 10 MAY 93 was  59.2.
      The Full Kp Indices for 10 MAY 93 are: 6- 7o 6o 6o   5- 2- 3- 4-


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was at low levels. Region 7500 (N16W12)
       continues to show signs of growth, and Region 7496 (N15W32)
       remains the most active region on the disk.

       STD: The largest flare of the day was a long-duration (175
       minutes) class C2.1 event at 11/2207Z from Region 7500.  The
       event was not associated with any significant radio or sweep
       activity.  The x-ray signature and duration of this event are
       the only favorable indicators at present of a possible minor
       coronal mass ejection.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at low to moderate levels. The potential for an M-class flare
       remains with Region 7500.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 12 may-14 may

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 12 may-14 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/20
                        Minor Storm           05/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/10

            HF propagation recovered more strongly today over all
       regions, with polar and high latitude paths showing the slowest
       recovery.  Propagation is expected to be near-normal over the
       equatorial to middle latitude paths, with minor transition
       problems possible across the sunrise/sunset terminator from the
       middle to polar latitude paths as the ionosphere recovers.  All
       regions should see near-normal propagation by 13 May.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7496  N14W32  009  0370 DAI  10  020 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7499  S08W64  041  0090 DAO  10  006 BETA
7500  N17W12  349  0480 DKI  10  035 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7502  S12W50  027  0070 DAO  04  006 BETA
7503  S06E41  296  0020 BXO  04  003 BETA
7504  N09E61  276  0090 CSO  07  002 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 12 MAY TO 14 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7477 N12   230


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 11 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 11 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
11/ 2102     2207     2357       N16W14   LDE    C2.1  175


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
08   N30E15 S08W00 N08W09 N35E04  336  ISO   POS   015 10830A
09   S13E42 S25E37 S18E08 S12E37  311  ISO   POS   009 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


