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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 10 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 11 May 93 9:54:42 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  10 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 130, 05/10/93
10.7 FLUX=134.1  90-AVG=127        SSN=137      BKI=5764 4234  BAI=046
BGND-XRAY=B3.5     FLU1=9.3E+06  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=6766 5234  PAI=054
  BOU-DEV=099,227,137,060,052,012,020,044   DEV-AVG=081 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.4   @ 2002UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.0   @ 0545UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.7
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 0010UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2000UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2245UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1150UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55441NT @ 0056UT   BOUTF-MIN=55327NT @ 0533UT  BOUTF-AVG=55377NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+000,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+188NT@ 1804UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-143NT@ 0334UT  G6-AVG=+108,-025,-071
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,130,130;SESC:130,130,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,015/030,015,015
    KFCST=3446 6443 3446 6443  27DAY-AP=031,021   27DAY-KP=2556 4433 3554 1233
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINSTRM
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 09 MAY 93 was  36.8.
      The Full Kp Indices for 09 MAY 93 are: 5o 6o 5o 4-   3+ 3+ 4- 5+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7500 (N17E03) still is
       exhibiting growth. Region 7504 (N06E70) was assigned.

       STD: Regions 7500 and 7496 (N15W20) contain weak magnetic delta
       configurations.  Some fingers of magnetic shear are also
       evident, mostly in the northern areas of Region 7500.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7496 and 7500 are expected to
       be the most active Regions, with Region 7500 having the
       possibility of producing a M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major
       storms levels. This activity is possibily due to the
       combination of a coronal hole and the M-class flare that
       was produced on 07 May from Region 7500, which had a
       Type IV sweep.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at unsettled to active levels.

            Event probabilities 11 may-13 may

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 11 may-13 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/15/15
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/15/15

            HF propagation conditions were significantly degraded over
       the polar and high latitude regions.  Strong geomagnetic and
       auroral activity was responsible for producing very poor to
       useless propagation over the high and polar latitude paths.
       Degradation affected middle and low latitudes as well, with
       middle latitude paths observing fair to mostly poor propagation
       throughout much of the day.  Some improvements were observed by
       the end of the UT day when storming began subsiding.
       Blanketting sporadic-E, spread-F, strong fading and
       non-deviative absorption have been reported worldwide.  Gradual
       improvements are expected over the next 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7496  N15W20  010  0300 DAI  08  024 BETA-DELTA
7499  S08W52  042  0100 DSO  09  007 BETA
7500  N17E03  347  0580 DKI  09  038 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7502  S12W38  028  0030 CSO  03  005 BETA
7503  S07E53  297  0000 BXO  04  002 BETA
7504  N07E70  280  0040 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 11 MAY TO 13 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7483 S14   250
7477 N12   230


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 10 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 10 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


