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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 09 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 10 May 93 0:23:12 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  09 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 09 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 129, 05/09/93
10.7 FLUX=128.7  90-AVG=128        SSN=134      BKI=5553 3334  BAI=028
BGND-XRAY=B2.8     FLU1=3.2E+06  FLU10=1.4E+04  PKI=5654 3345  PAI=039
  BOU-DEV=113,113,075,034,032,031,038,058   DEV-AVG=061 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B6.9   @ 1041UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.5   @ 0932UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.7
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2005UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1520UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 2125UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2015UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55434NT @ 2301UT   BOUTF-MIN=55366NT @ 0841UT  BOUTF-AVG=55390NT
GOES7-MAX=-9999NT@ 9750UT   GOES7-MIN=+9999NT@ 0002UT  G7-AVG=+000,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+133NT@ 1907UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-137NT@ 0235UT  G6-AVG=+096,-022,-068
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,135,135;SESC:130,135,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/020,015,010
    KFCST=3324 4223 2214 4112  27DAY-AP=014,031   27DAY-KP=4532 2222 2556 4433
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 08 MAY 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 08 MAY 93 are: 5o 4- 5o 5+   5o 3+ 4- 4- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7500 (N17E15)
       continued to grow, increasing penumbral area and forming a
       delta configuration. Region 7496 (N15W05) also grew but
       remained magnetically simple. Spotless Plage 7501 (S10,L-040)
       was combined with Region 7499 (S08W39). New Regions 7502
       (S12W24) and 7503 (S07E69) were numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. M-class flares are possible in Region 7500.
       An isolated major flare is also possible in this region.

            The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to storm levels.
       This coronal hole induced disturbance appears to be tapering
       off. STD: Night-sector perturbations are remaining strong, at
       minor to major storm levels.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active tomorrow, becoming quiet to
       unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period.

            Event probabilities 10 may-12 may

                             Class M    30/35/40
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 10 may-12 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/15/15
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/15/15
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were below-normal over most
       regions.  Conditions should begin improving on 11 and 12 May.
       Night-sector propagation will be the most unstable over the
       high and polar latitude paths.  Daylit middle and low latitude
       paths could experience SWF activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7496  N15W05  009  0280 DAI  09  029 BETA
7499  S08W39  043  0090 DSO  08  014 BETA
7500  N17E15  349  0500 DKC  10  037 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7502  S12W24  028  0010 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
7503  S07E69  295  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7493  S07W81  085                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 10 MAY TO 12 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7486 N12   262
7483 S14   250
COMMENT: REGION 7501 HAS BEEN COMBINED WITH REGION 7499.


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 09 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 09 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
          NONE VISIBLE


**  End of Daily Report  **


