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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 08 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 9 May 93 16:07:36 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  08 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 08 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 128, 05/08/93
10.7 FLUX=128.7  90-AVG=129        SSN=104      BKI=5455 5444  BAI=037
BGND-XRAY=B4.0     FLU1=6.4E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=5455 5344  PAI=035
  BOU-DEV=088,045,075,089,072,050,053,060   DEV-AVG=066 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.8   @ 0316UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.0   @ 2356UT   XRAY-AVG= B6.9
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1620UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2255UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2315UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 1240UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55434NT @ 0003UT   BOUTF-MIN=55359NT @ 0927UT  BOUTF-AVG=55388NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+000,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+140NT@ 1645UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-154NT@ 0153UT  G6-AVG=+094,-023,-074
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,135,135;SESC:130,135,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,010/020,018,015
    KFCST=3325 5223 3324 4223  27DAY-AP=009,014   27DAY-KP=3321 2222 4532 2222
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 07 MAY 93 was  63.5.
      The Full Kp Indices for 07 MAY 93 are: 2- 4- 2- 2+   3o 3o 3+ 5o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7500 (N17E27)
       produced the largest flare of the past day, an M1.6/1B at
       07/2138Z. Region 7496 (N15E06) produced several small C-class
       flares. Both of these regions are growing slowly and may be
       forming delta configurations. Region 7499 (S08W26) is also
       growing but remains a simple bipolar sunspot group.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. The chance of moderate activity will increase
       as Regions 7496 and 7500 develop.

            The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels at
       middle latitudes and active to major storm at high latitudes.
       This disturbance is thought to be associated with a coronal
       hole presently located near W40.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at active to storm levels for the next 24 hours
       becoming quiet to unsettled by the end of the three day
       forecast period.

            Event probabilities 09 may-11 may

                             Class M    25/30/35
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 09 may-11 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                40/15/15
                        Minor Storm           25/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/15/15
                        Minor Storm           30/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    20/05/05

            HF propagation conditions have been near-normal over
       daylit paths and below-normal over night-sector paths due to
       enhanced geomagnetic and auroral activity.  Most of the
       degradation has been in the form of auroral absorption, fading,
       and signal multipathing.  Conditions are expected to remain
       below-normal over the next 24 hours, gradually improving to
       near-normal by 11 or 12 May.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7496  N15E07  010  0190 DAI  07  028 BETA-GAMMA
7499  S08W26  043  0050 CAO  06  011 BETA
7500  N17E27  350  0460 DKI  09  023 BETA-GAMMA
7501  S10W23  040  0010 BXO  02  002 BETA
7493  S07W68  085                    PLAGE
7494  S08W79  096                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 09 MAY TO 11 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7486 N12   262
7483 S14   250
COMMENT: DUE TO A COMM OUTAGE, VERY FEW SPOT REPORTS WERE RECEIVED.


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 08 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 08 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
05   N13W29 S27W44 S14W58 N15W34  060  ISO   NEG   022 10830A
06   N60W29 N27W56 N28W62 N60W29  070  EXT   POS   019 10830A
08   S21E86 S21E86 N10E31 N35E56  329  ISO   POS   034 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


