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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 7 May 93 22:19:11 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  07 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 127, 05/07/93
10.7 FLUX=130.6  90-AVG=129        SSN=108      BKI=2323 3334  BAI=014
BGND-XRAY=B5.1     FLU1=2.8E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2422 3335  PAI=017
  BOU-DEV=014,034,015,024,029,031,033,043   DEV-AVG=027 NT     SWF=01:071
 XRAY-MAX= M1.6   @ 2138UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.6   @ 1134UT   XRAY-AVG= C2.0
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2220UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1855UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 2145UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 2205UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55434NT @ 2357UT   BOUTF-MIN=55362NT @ 1643UT  BOUTF-AVG=55386NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+000,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+145NT@ 1722UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-137NT@ 2336UT  G6-AVG=+094,-017,-055
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,130,130;SESC:130,130,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,020,015/035,020,015
    KFCST=4455 5444 5444 4333  27DAY-AP=020,009   27DAY-KP=5444 3333 3321 2222
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.6/1B@2138UTC,N14E41(7500);**SWEEP:IV=2@2112UTC;
          **TENFLR:@2110,DUR=35MIN
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 06 MAY 93 was  68.8.
      The Full Kp Indices for 06 MAY 93 are: 2o 2- 2- 2+   3o 3o 3- 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low.  The most significant activity
       has been a series of class C flares.  Most of them have been in
       Region 7500 (N17E39) with occasional smaller flares in Region
       7496 (N15E22) as well. Region 7500 continues to be the main
       area of interest.  A small filament has disappeared near the
       center of the disk, near the newer Regions 7501 (S10W03) and
       7499 (S08W11), signalling some possible large scale
       rearrangement of magnetic structures in that area.  A negative
       polarity coronal hole with consistent definition and size is
       now located around N05 to S20 and W20 to W40.

            STD: A class M1.6/1B tenflare erupted out of Region 7500
       at 07/2138Z.  This event had a long-decay x-ray signature and
       was associated with a moderate Type IV sweep at 07/2112Z.  The
       National Solar Observatory reported strong Ca XV emissions from
       the southwest limb near S07.  These emissions appear to be from
       departed Region 7497.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate with an increasing chance of class M flares
       from the complex of Regions 7496 and 7500.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active due to the negative
       polarity coronal hole west of central meridian.  STD: Minor
       geomagnetic storming has been observed late in the UT day.
       Periods of minor storming are expected over the middle
       latitudes, while high latitudes may see episodes of major
       storming during the local night sectors.  The long-duration
       minor flare observed today could result in enhanced geomagnetic
       activity on 10 May.

            Event probabilities 08 may-10 may

                             Class M    20/20/25
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 may-10 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/15
                        Minor Storm           20/20/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/25
                        Minor Storm           25/30/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/20/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal until late in
       the UT day.  Effects from todays minor long-duration flare
       combined with the arrival of the disturbance from a well placed
       coronal hole resulted in degraded propagation over all regions
       from the polar sections to the equatorial daylit paths.
       Effects from the SWF subsided by the end of the UT day.
       Propagation is expected to continue below-normal over the high
       and polar latitude paths, with minor signal degradation
       stretching into the middle latitude night-sector paths.  No
       notable improvements are expected until about 10 May.  If
       todays minor flare produces a geophysical impact, propagation
       may not rebound to near-normal values until 11 or 12 May.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7496  N15E22  008  0150 DAI  06  019 BETA-GAMMA
7497  S08W88  118  0060 BXO  05  004 BETA
7499  S08W11  041  0030 CSO  05  008 BETA
7500  N17E39  351  0570 DKI  10  025 BETA-GAMMA
7501  S10W03  033  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7493  S07W55  085                    PLAGE
7494  S08W66  096                    PLAGE
7498  S23W61  091                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 MAY TO 10 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7486 N12   262


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1455 1459 1501 7496  N11E26 C1.0  SN   1100 34
 2020 2138 2230 7500  N14E41 M1.6  1B    530 140       IV


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
07/A0023             B1305       S02E01   DSF
07/ 2020     2138     2230       N14E41   LDE    M1.6  130     2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
05   N04W19 S30W33 S11W45 N07W24  061  ISO   NEG   023 10830A
06   N60W19 N25W44 N26W62 N60W44  068  EXT   POS   041 10830A
08   N20E67 S25E56 N10E36 N34E56  336  ISO   POS   058 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


