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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9305070436.AA20865@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 6 May 93 22:36:39 MDT
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  06 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: GOES-7 magnetometer data has been bad since 02 May.  The problem has
      not yet been rectified.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 126, 05/06/93
10.7 FLUX=120    90-AVG=130        SSN=084      BKI=2222 3332  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=B4.1     FLU1=2.1E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2222 3332  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=012,016,015,018,026,035,022,010   DEV-AVG=019 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.2   @ 1832UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.5   @ 0811UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.3
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2325UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0115UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2105UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2035UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55400NT @ 1302UT   BOUTF-MIN=55359NT @ 1903UT  BOUTF-AVG=55384NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+042NT@ 1554UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-045NT@ 1554UT  G7-AVG=-001,+014,-045
GOES6-MAX=P:+136NT@ 1655UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-098NT@ 0203UT  G6-AVG=+094,-013,-049
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,130,130;SESC:125,130,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,025,020/020,035,020
    KFCST=3334 4433 4455 5444  27DAY-AP=017,020   27DAY-KP=3332 1435 5444 3333
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 05 MAY 93 was  69.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 05 MAY 93 are: 1+ 1o 3- 2o   3- 2- 2- 1+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7500 (N16E52) produced the
       largest flare over the period, with a C2.2/SF at 1832Z.  This
       region is the largest and most respectable group visible at 510
       millionths in a DKI optical configuration.  The group does
       contain a magnetic delta configuration.  There also appears to
       be a few pockets of magnetic shear, although no large-scale
       shear appears to exist at the present time.  A filament
       disappeared from the northeast quadrant early today. New Region
       7501 (S10E06) was assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7500 has potential for C-class flares and a slight
       chance for M-class activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. Periods of active to minor
       storm levels occurred at higher latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to minor storm levels through the
       forecast period. Activity levels are expected due to a
       favorably positioned coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 07 may-09 may

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 may-09 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/35/35
                        Minor Storm           25/30/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/15

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/30
                        Minor Storm           30/25/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/15

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Propagation is expected to become increasingly degraded over
       the middle to polar latitude paths over the next 72 hours in
       response to a large coronal hole.  Propagation is not expected
       to improve substantially until after 09 or 10 May after the
       disturbance subsides.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7496  N15E34  009  0120 CAO  06  008 BETA
7497  S07W76  119  0110 DAO  09  003 BETA
7499  S09E03  040  0020 BXO  06  005 BETA
7500  N17E52  351  0510 DKI  10  014 BETA-DELTA
7501  S11E09  034  0020 BXO  04  004 BETA
7490  N08W89  132                    PLAGE
7493  S07W42  085                    PLAGE
7494  S08W53  096                    PLAGE
7495  N01W85  128                    PLAGE
7498  S23W48  091                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 MAY TO 09 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
05   S26E04 S28W24 S13W30 N01W03  058  ISO   NEG   021 10830A
06   N90E76 N25W34 N80W90 N90E76  051  EXT   POS   163 10830A
07   S48W35 S64W64 S40W69 S40W69  109  EXT   NEG   009 10830A
08   N18E76 S12E76 S00E45 N22E76  341  ISO   POS   013 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Fri May  7 07:56:25 1993
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 id AA20865; Thu, 6 May 93 22:36:43 -0600
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9305070436.AA20865@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 6 May 93 22:36:39 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
X-Charset: FI
X-Char-Esc: 29
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 749
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  06 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: GOES-7 magnetometer data has been bad since 02 May.  The problem has
      not yet been rectified.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 126, 05/06/93
10.7 FLUX=120    90-AVG=130        SSN=084      BKI=2222 3332  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=B4.1     FLU1=2.1E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2222 3332  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=012,016,015,018,026,035,022,010   DEV-AVG=019 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.2   @ 1832UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.5   @ 0811UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.3
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2325UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0115UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2105UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2035UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55400NT @ 1302UT   BOUTF-MIN=55359NT @ 1903UT  BOUTF-AVG=55384NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+042NT@ 1554UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-045NT@ 1554UT  G7-AVG=-001,+014,-045
GOES6-MAX=P:+136NT@ 1655UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-098NT@ 0203UT  G6-AVG=+094,-013,-049
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,130,130;SESC:125,130,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,025,020/020,035,020
    KFCST=3334 4433 4455 5444  27DAY-AP=017,020   27DAY-KP=3332 1435 5444 3333
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 05 MAY 93 was  69.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 05 MAY 93 are: 1+ 1o 3- 2o   3- 2- 2- 1+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7500 (N16E52) produced the
       largest flare over the period, with a C2.2/SF at 1832Z.  This
       region is the largest and most respectable group visible at 510
       millionths in a DKI optical configuration.  The group does
       contain a magnetic delta configuration.  There also appears to
       be a few pockets of magnetic shear, although no large-scale
       shear appears to exist at the present time.  A filament
       disappeared from the northeast quadrant early today. New Region
       7501 (S10E06) was assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7500 has potential for C-class flares and a slight
       chance for M-class activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. Periods of active to minor
       storm levels occurred at higher latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to minor storm levels through the
       forecast period. Activity levels are expected due to a
       favorably positioned coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 07 may-09 may

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 may-09 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/35/35
                        Minor Storm           25/30/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/15

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/30
                        Minor Storm           30/25/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/15

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Propagation is expected to become increasingly degraded over
       the middle to polar latitude paths over the next 72 hours in
       response to a large coronal hole.  Propagation is not expected
       to improve substantially until after 09 or 10 May after the
       disturbance subsides.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7496  N15E34  009  0120 CAO  06  008 BETA
7497  S07W76  119  0110 DAO  09  003 BETA
7499  S09E03  040  0020 BXO  06  005 BETA
7500  N17E52  351  0510 DKI  10  014 BETA-DELTA
7501  S11E09  034  0020 BXO  04  004 BETA
7490  N08W89  132                    PLAGE
7493  S07W42  085                    PLAGE
7494  S08W53  096                    PLAGE
7495  N01W85  128                    PLAGE
7498  S23W48  091                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 MAY TO 09 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
05   S26E04 S28W24 S13W30 N01W03  058  ISO   NEG   021 10830A
06   N90E76 N25W34 N80W90 N90E76  051  EXT   POS   163 10830A
07   S48W35 S64W64 S40W69 S40W69  109  EXT   NEG   009 10830A
08   N18E76 S12E76 S00E45 N22E76  341  ISO   POS   013 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


