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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 05 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 6 May 93 1:06:14 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  05 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 05 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 125, 05/05/93
10.7 FLUX=117.9  90-AVG=130        SSN=090      BKI=1032 2222  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B4.1     FLU1=8.5E+04  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=1132 3221  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=008,004,024,018,019,010,019,012   DEV-AVG=014 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.9   @ 1838UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.4   @ 0321UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.7
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2335UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0610UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2335UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2155UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55398NT @ 1251UT   BOUTF-MIN=55357NT @ 1944UT  BOUTF-AVG=55382NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+039NT@ 2027UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-046NT@ 1541UT  G7-AVG=+008,+014,-045
GOES6-MAX=P:+125NT@ 1521UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-090NT@ 0300UT  G6-AVG=+095,-014,-048
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,120,125;SESC:120,120,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,020,020/015,020,035
    KFCST=3333 4333 3344 4433  27DAY-AP=019,017   27DAY-KP=2345 3333 3332 1435
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 04 MAY 93 was  70.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 04 MAY 93 are: 2- 1o 2+ 1+   2- 2+ 1+ 1+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7500 (N17E62) produced the
       largest flare of the day, a C2.9/SF at 05/1838Z.  This region
       appears to be the most substantial of the two east limb regions
       near N18 (Regions 7496 and 7500).  Region 7500 was assigned
       today as well as Region 7499 (S10E17).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.  Region 7500 is a large DAI group of area 410 millionths.
       Region 7500 is packed in close to Region 7496 (N13E51). This
       combination represents a fairly complex magnetic field with
       an outside chance for an isolated M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days at
       mid-latitudes and unsettled to minor storm at high latitudes.
       A large coronal hole will rotate into position on 07 May
       causing the disturbance.

            Event probabilities 06 may-08 may

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 06 may-08 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           20/35/35
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/15/15

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/30
                        Minor Storm           20/35/40
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/20/20

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  There is a good chance propagation will become
       degraded over most regions on 07 May in response to activity
       induced by a well placed coronal hole approaching a
       geoeffective position.  Propagation over the high and polar
       latitude paths is expected to become poor to occasionally very
       poor.  Middle latitude paths should see near-normal to slightly
       below-normal propagation over daylit paths and good to
       occasionally poor propagation over night-sector paths.  Low
       latitude paths should see mostly near-normal propagation
       throughout the next 72 hours with only slightly increased
       levels of night-sector signal instabilities.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7493  S07W29  086  0010 BXO  04  003 BETA
7496  N13E46  011  0050 CAO  03  004 BETA
7497  S07W62  119  0060 CAO  07  008 BETA
7498  S23W35  092  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7499  S10E17  040  0020 BXO  03  003 BETA
7500  N17E64  353  0410 DAI  10  010 BETA
7490  N08W76  133                    PLAGE
7494  S08W40  097                    PLAGE
7495  N01W72  129                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 06 MAY TO 08 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 05 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 05 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
05/A2226          06/B0017       N06E33   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
05   S30E15 S32W03 S14W17 S02W06  061  ISO   NEG   018 10830A
06   N90E87 N23W17 N90W90 N90E87  062  EXT   POS   231 10830A
07   S49W26 S68W83 S68W83 S40W73  111  EXT   NEG   025 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


