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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 04 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 4 May 93 21:53:47 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  04 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 04 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 124, 05/04/93
10.7 FLUX=110.6  90-AVG=130        SSN=091      BKI=1131 2211  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B4.1     FLU1=5.7E+04  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2121 2211  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=008,009,028,007,010,017,006,009   DEV-AVG=011 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C8.3   @ 0320UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.3   @ 1757UT   XRAY-AVG= B6.9
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1950UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2010UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 2125UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55398NT @ 1304UT   BOUTF-MIN=55353NT @ 1725UT  BOUTF-AVG=55380NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+038NT@ 1808UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-046NT@ 2345UT  G7-AVG=+015,+014,-045
GOES6-MAX=P:+127NT@ 1624UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-082NT@ 0720UT  G6-AVG=+096,-014,-049
 FLUXFCST=STD:110,110,110;SESC:110,110,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,016
    KFCST=2224 4212 2213 3112  27DAY-AP=013,019   27DAY-KP=2332 3333 2345 3333
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 03 MAY 93 was  78.8.
      The Full Kp Indices for 03 MAY 93 are: 2+ 1- 3- 4-   3+ 3- 1+ 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was at low levels. The largest
       event was a C8.3 flare that was optically uncorrelated.
       STD: The National Solar Observatory reported moderate Ca XV
       emission on the northeast limb near N18 again today.  Emissions
       appear to be declining as the source region rotates more fully
       onto the disk.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at very low to low levels with a very slight chance of
       M-class flares from Region 7496.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at mostly unsettled levels. There is a chance
       of active levels on day 3 due to a coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 05 may-07 may

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 05 may-07 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/20/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           10/15/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/10

       STD:
            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions are expected over the next 72
       hours.  Effects from recurrent coronal disturbances have not
       materialized.  Another well placed coronal hole will be in a
       geoeffective position on 07 May and could degrade propagation
       on polar and high latitude signal paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7488  S20W85  155  0030 AXX  03  003 ALPHA
7490  N09W63  133  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7493  S07W15  085  0040 DSO  06  007 BETA
7496  N16E66  004  0180 EAO  14  005 BETA
7497  S08W49  119  0030 CAO  05  011 BETA
7498  S22W24  094  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7492  S12W79  149                    PLAGE
7494  S08W27  097                    PLAGE
7495  N01W59  129                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 05 MAY TO 07 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 04 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 04 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
05   S15E26 S16E21 S03W04 N10E07  061  ISO   NEG   019 10830A
06   N67E23 N20W01 N26W27 N69W06  070  EXT   POS   033 10830A
07   S47E25 S58W38 S37W54 S36W50  086  EXT   NEG   043 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


