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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 03 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 4 May 93 0:15:43 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  03 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)

PLEASE NOTE:

     Comments and synoptical information provided by the STD to
     supplement the SESC textual summaries is now being prepended
     with "STD:" to distinguish them from the SESC information.


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 03 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 123, 05/03/93
10.7 FLUX=107.1  90-AVG=131        SSN=055      BKI=2134 3221  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=B4.2     FLU1=8.3E+04  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2134 3311  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=017,006,024,041,028,014,010,007   DEV-AVG=018 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.6   @ 0643UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.7   @ 0344UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.7
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2335UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2340UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2345UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 0005UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55401NT @ 0105UT   BOUTF-MIN=55357NT @ 1658UT  BOUTF-AVG=55384NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+039NT@ 1938UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-045NT@ 2359UT  G7-AVG=+007,+014,-045
GOES6-MAX=P:+122NT@ 1434UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-084NT@ 0617UT  G6-AVG=+091,-014,-049
 FLUXFCST=STD:112,115,115;SESC:105,105,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,015,021/020,015,020
    KFCST=3345 5433 2235 4322  27DAY-AP=012,013   27DAY-KP=2323 3324 2332 3333
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 02 MAY 93 was  83.4.
      The Full Kp Indices for 02 MAY 93 are: 2- 2- 2o 2+   2o 2- 2+ 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was at low levels. There were three
       C-class flares and all were optically uncorrelated.

       STD: An H-type spot group, numbered as new Region 7496 (N15E72)
       has rotated partly into view around the east limb.  Preliminary
       analysis of limb data from this region shows that it may have
       some M-class flare potential.  The National Solar Observatory
       reported observing strong Ca XV emissions from this group today
       and moderate emission from this area of the northeast limb
       yesterday.  This, combined with some interesting uncorrelated
       x-ray activity observed while this group was one to two days
       behind the east limb suggests that the group might be capable
       of producing more energetic isolated activity in the M-class
       category.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at very low to low levels.

       STD: We believe activity will remain mostly low with a chance
       for isolated M-class activity. Background x-ray levels are
       continuing to climb and there has been a substantial increase
       in low-level B-class and weak C-class flares over the last 24
       hours.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be active on 4 May due to a disappearing filament.
       On the second day the activity is expected to be mostly
       unsettled, while on the third day the activity is expected
       to be at active levels due to a coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 04 may-06 may

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 04 may-06 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/15/20
                        Minor Storm           15/10/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/15/20
                        Minor Storm           15/15/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    20/05/05

       STD:
            HF propagation conditions continued normal over all
       regions.  A disturbance produced by a disappearing filament may
       arrive over the next 24 hours (on 04 May).  If it does, expect
       occasionally moderate signal degradation over the high and
       polar latitude night-sector paths.  Middle latitudes could also
       see minor signal degradation during the local night hours.
       Propagation is again expected to become unstable on 06 May due
       to a well placed coronal hole and the associated enhanced
       geophysical activity produced therefrom.  There is an
       increasing possibility for SWF activity over daylit paths due
       to possible solar flare activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7490  N09W50  133  0030 HAX  01  002 ALPHA
7493  S09W02  085  0040 DSO  08  008 BETA
7494  S08W14  097  0020 BXO  03  004 BETA
7496  N15E72  011  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7488  S19W70  153                    PLAGE
7492  S12W66  149                    PLAGE
7495  N01W46  129                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 04 MAY TO 06 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 03 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 03 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
03   S03W46 S03W46 N06W59 N06W59  138  ISO   POS   003 10830A
05   S22E53 S22E53 S15E21 N02E35  048  ISO   NEG   017 10830A
06   N60E46 N22E12 N27W00 N60E46  057  EXT   POS   034 10830A
07   S52E86 S52E86 S50W13 S23E31  046  EXT   NEG   053 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


