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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 02 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 2 May 93 23:45:39 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  02 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 02 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 122, 05/02/93
10.7 FLUX=103.1  90-AVG=131        SSN=042      BKI=1122 2122  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B2.3     FLU1=6.0E+04  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2222 2222  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=005,008,012,019,015,008,013,013   DEV-AVG=011 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.6   @ 0001UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.9   @ 0346UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.5
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2340UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1940UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 2130UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1510UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55401NT @ 1323UT   BOUTF-MIN=55367NT @ 1720UT  BOUTF-AVG=55389NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+070NT@ 0008UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-045NT@ 2359UT  G7-AVG=+032,+020,-033
GOES6-MAX=P:+142NT@ 1716UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-079NT@ 0422UT  G6-AVG=+099,-013,-047
 FLUXFCST=STD:107,110,110;SESC:107,110,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,030,010/015,020,015
    KFCST=1112 2113 5555 5555  27DAY-AP=102,012   27DAY-KP=7887 7644 2323 3324
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 01 MAY 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 01 MAY 93 are: 3- 4- 2o 3-   2o 2+ 2+ 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low.  An optically uncorrelated
       long-duration C5 flare at 01/2337Z was the strongest x-ray
       event of the last 24 hours. All visible regions on the solar
       disk were stable and quiet. Some surge activity was observed on
       east limb at N13.  Several additional weaker yet long-duration
       x-ray enhancements were also observed today and may be
       attributed to activity nearing the eastern limb.  At the time
       of this writing, background x-ray levels appear to be on the
       rise.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low.  Much of the uncorrelated x-ray activity observed
       over the last 48 hours has been of a type more frequently
       associated with regions with better structural organization and
       M-class potential.  The signatures are indicative of region(s)
       nearing the limb, although nothing particularly noteworthy has
       yet been observed with the exception of minor surging near
       NE13.  Expect an increase in the 10.7 cm solar radio flux
       perhaps above that presently predicted, over the next several
       days if the source regions responsible for this activity
       rotated around the east limb.

            The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be generally unsettled tomorrow and is expected to
       attain active to minor storm levels on the second day in re-
       sponse to a recent filament disappearence. Conditions should
       subside to mostly unsettled levels by day three.

            Event probabilities 03 may-05 may

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 03 may-05 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/30
                        Minor Storm           05/25/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/20/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/15/30
                        Minor Storm           05/20/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/30/10

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions should prevail over the next 24
       hours (03 May), followed by more disturbed conditions on 04 May
       when the filament-related disturbance is due to arrive.  At
       that time, poor to very poor propagation could be observed over
       the high and polar latitude paths.  Middle latitudes should see
       near-normal (good) propagation over daylit paths and slightly
       below normal propagation (fair to occasionally poor) over night
       sectors.  Low latitudes should see near-normal propagation
       throughout the next 72 hours with only minor signal degradation
       during the local night times.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7490  N08W33  129  0040 CSO  07  003 BETA
7493  S10E09  087  0030 CSO  05  008 BETA
7495  N01W33  129  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7488  S19W57  153                    PLAGE
7492  S12W53  149                    PLAGE
7494  S04W03  099                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 03 MAY TO 05 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7473 N15   006


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 02 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 02 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
03   S02W49 S04W58 N03W63 N04W55  152  ISO   POS   003 10830A
05   S17E46 S17E30 S09E23 N04E43  061  ISO   NEG   016 10830A
06   N64E45 N32E18 N33E03 N64E45  066  EXT   POS   022 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


