From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Sun May  2 10:02:37 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA14583
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Sun, 2 May 1993 10:02:35 +0300
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA05223; Sun, 2 May 1993 10:02:18 +0300
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c8/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA05141; Sun, 2 May 1993 09:58:10 +0300
Return-Path: <oler@rho.uleth.ca>
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA28258; Sun, 2 May 93 00:57:48 -0600
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9305020657.AA28258@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 01 May
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 2 May 93 0:57:44 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
X-Charset: FI
X-Char-Esc: 29
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 739
Status: OR

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                  01 MAY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 01 MAY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 121, 05/01/93
10.7 FLUX=102.6  90-AVG=131        SSN=041      BKI=2422 2000  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B1.5     FLU1=4.0E+04  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3423 2222  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=013,047,012,018,016,004,004,004   DEV-AVG=014 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.9   @ 2337UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.4   @ 2041UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.8
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1715UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1505UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 2345UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2145UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55400NT @ 1145UT   BOUTF-MIN=55375NT @ 1653UT  BOUTF-AVG=55391NT
GOES7-MAX=E:+111NT@ 1009UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-027NT@ 1024UT  G7-AVG=+065,+054,+003
GOES6-MAX=P:+104NT@ 1241UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-125NT@ 0243UT  G6-AVG=+082,-019,-060
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,110,110;SESC:105,110,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,030/020,015,020
    KFCST=3323 2111 1112 2111  27DAY-AP=031,102   27DAY-KP=1111 4656 7887 7644
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 30 APR 93 was  83.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 30 APR 93 are: 4o 3o 2+ 2+   3- 2+ 3- 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. All regions on the
       solar disk were quiet and stable.  Another fairly impressive
       long-duration (approximately 102 minutes) class C5.9 x-ray
       event was observed at 01/2337Z. At the time of this writing,
       this event was not optically correlated and was not associated
       with any radio activity.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. A brief active period was
       observed from 0300-0600Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active tomorrow: activity should
       be slightly above normal due to effects from a favorably
       positioned coronal hole. Conditions should decline to mostly
       unsettled on the second day. On the third day active to minor
       storm level conditions are expected in response to the filament
       eruption that occurred yesterday at about 30/1400Z.

            Event probabilities 02 may-04 may

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 02 may-04 may

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/10/30
                        Minor Storm           20/05/35
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/10/25
                        Minor Storm           20/05/40
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/10

            HF propagation conditions continued normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions are expected over the next 24 to
       48 hours, followed by possible signal degradation over all
       regions on 04 May due to an anticipated filament-related
       disturbance.  On 04 May, poor to very poor propagation may be
       observed over the polar and high latitude paths, fair to
       occasionally poor propagation over the middle latitude paths,
       and mostly good propagation over the low latitude paths if this
       disturbance materializes.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z MAY
------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7488  S19W44  153  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7490  N08W19  128  0060 DSO  08  004 BETA
7493  S12E20  089  0050 DSO  04  006 BETA
7489  N09W53  162                    PLAGE
7491  N10W71  180                    PLAGE
7492  S12W40  149                    PLAGE
7494  S04E10  099                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 02 MAY TO 04 MAY
NMBR LAT    LO
7473 N15   006


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 01 MAY, 1993
--------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 01 MAY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
03   S10W36 S10W54 S10W54 S01W50  155  ISO   POS   004 10830A
05   S15E60 S30E48 S12E35 S01E49  063  ISO   NEG   015 10830A
06   N60E46 N24E34 N28E14 N60E46  072  EXT   POS   015 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


