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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9305142358.AA27664@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: WARNING: Potential Satellite Proton Event Warning
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 14 May 93 17:58:15 MDT
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Status: OR

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                   POTENTIAL SATELLITE PROTON EVENT WARNING

                           ISSUED: 23:50 UT, 14 MAY

                  /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


ATTENTION:

     An interesting class M4.4 tenflare is in progress from Region 7500
(N11W50).  This event has been associated with a 970 sfu tenflare that began
at 14/2244Z and a Type IV sweep.  X-rays from this event are particularly
interesting. The event began with a sharp impulsive precursor that peaked at
an M1.2 level. This was followed by a gradual decline prior to the main phase
which reached a maximum M4.4 x-ray level at 14/2302Z in a long-decay x-ray
signature.

     Overall, this has been an impressive event with a respectable integrated
x-ray flux.  There is some concern that the position of this flare, combined
with the characteristics it has exhibited and the coronal geometry around
Region 7500, might be associated with a minor injection of protons at greater
than 10 MeV. If true, an enhancement in protons at greater than 10 MeV in the
near-Earth space environment could be observed over the next 6 to 9 hours (by
approximately 06 to 09 UT on 15 May), with emphasis on possible proton
arrival over the next 3 to 6 hours.  The probability of protons exceeding
event levels of 10 pfu at greater than 10 MeV is relatively low, but is high
enough to warrant this warning.

     Use the Internet command: "finger solar@xi.uleth.ca" for current plots
of protons at greater than 1, 10 and 100 MeV.


**  End of Warning  **


