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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9303010425.AA07798@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 28 February
Date: Sun, 28 Feb 93 21:25:03 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                28 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 28 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 059, 02/28/93
10.7 FLUX=124    90-AVG=134        SSN=142      BKI=4435 4321  BAI=021
BGND-XRAY=B2.6     FLU1=7.5E+05  FLU10=1.5E+04  PKI=3445 5321  PAI=024
  BOU-DEV=054,053,031,086,051,034,016,005   DEV-AVG=041 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.1   @ 1407UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.2   @ 0519UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.5
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0405UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2350UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2115UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0500UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55414NT @ 0005UT   BOUTF-MIN=55364NT @ 1926UT  BOUTF-AVG=55390NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+120NT@ 1917UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-043NT@ 1153UT  G7-AVG=+068,+037,+007
GOES6-MAX=P:+135NT@ 1720UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-005NT@ 1533UT  G6-AVG=+081,+015,+051
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,135,140;SESC:130,135,140 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,015/020,020,015
    KFCST=3445 4432 3445 4432  27DAY-AP=024,015   27DAY-KP=5345 3333 4433 3332
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7435 (N10E26) produced an
       isolated C-class subflare while displaying slight growth. An
       active surge region was observed near N13E90 at 28/1804Z,
       probably indicating the return of old Region 7417. New Regions
       7437 (S23W34) and 7438 (N23E46) were numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7435 may produce an isolated C-class
       subflare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for
       the past 24 hours. A sudden impulse of 12 nanotesla was
       observed by the Boulder USGS magnetometer at 27/2220Z. The
       impulse was followed by mostly active conditions. Activity
       began to subside near 28/1800Z. High latitudes reached active
       to major storm levels following the impulse. This activity
       may have been caused by either coronal hole or disappearing
       filament effects, or perhaps a combination thereof.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be active during the first two days due to the
       continuing effects of filament disappearances. Intermittent
       storm conditions are possible during the first half of the
       forecast period. Conditions are expected to decline to mostly
       unsettled levels by the final day.

            Event probabilities 01 mar-03 mar

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 01 mar-03 mar

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                45/45/35
                        Minor Storm           20/20/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                55/55/45
                        Minor Storm           25/25/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/05

            HF propagation conditions were slightly below normal over
       paths that crossed the upper middle latitudes.  Transauroral
       paths were more significantly affected with fading,
       multipathing and minor absorption.  Similar conditions are
       expected to persist for the next 48 hours.  Some improvements
       should be observed thereafter.  Equatorial, low and most middle
       latitude paths should continue to see near-normal propagation.
       Night-sector propagation will be the least stable.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7429  S13W88  295  0040 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7431  S11W84  291  0040 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7432  S18W54  261  0010 BXO  08  005 BETA
7433  N13W31  238  0190 EAO  12  016 BETA
7434  S11W11  218  0120 HSX  02  003 ALPHA
7435  N10E26  181  0140 DAO  09  023 BETA
7436  N18W66  273  0040 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7437  S23W35  242  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7438  N23E46  161  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 01 MARCH TO 03 MARCH
NMBR LAT    LO
7419 N10   111
7420 S06   090


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 28 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 28 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


