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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302280523.AA02163@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 27 February
Date: Sat, 27 Feb 93 22:23:18 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                27 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 27 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: NORMAL OPERATIONS HAVE BEEN RESTORED.  WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE
      INCONVENIENCE THE DATA OUTAGE MAY HAVE CAUSED DURING THE LAST WEEK.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 058, 02/27/93
10.7 FLUX=124.0  90-AVG=134        SSN=122      BKI=0010 1112  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B2.3     FLU1=2.2E+06  FLU10=1.5E+04  PKI=1011 1212  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=002,004,005,004,006,006,005,019   DEV-AVG=006 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B7.2   @ 0408UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.2   @ 1706UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.2
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 1735UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1205UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.9DB @ 1930UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55414NT @ 2359UT   BOUTF-MIN=55379NT @ 1906UT  BOUTF-AVG=55400NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+127NT@ 2330UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+006NT@ 1015UT  G7-AVG=+090,+030,+011
GOES6-MAX=P:+125NT@ 2315UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-004NT@ 1845UT  G6-AVG=+101,+008,+039
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,130,135;SESC:125,130,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,020/020,020,015
    KFCST=3445 4433 3445 4433  27DAY-AP=054,024   27DAY-KP=3567 5455 5345 3333
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Isolated B-class
       X-ray bursts occurred. Minor growth was noted in Region 7435
       (N10E39) and also in new Region 7436 (N18W51). The remaining
       spot groups were stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. An isolated C-class subflare may occur within
       Region 7435.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past
       24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly active. Coronal hole effects should
       influence the field on the first day. A filament dissapearance
       should affect the field during the last two days of the
       forecast period.

            Event probabilities 28 feb-02 mar

                             Class M    10/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 28 feb-02 mar

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                45/45/45
                        Minor Storm           20/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05
                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                55/55/55
                        Minor Storm           25/25/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/10

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Normal propagation should persist for the next 24 to 72 hours
       over the low and middle latitude paths.  Minor signal
       degradation is expected over paths transiting the auroral zones
       on 28 February and 01 March.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7429  S13W73  294  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7431  S12W71  292  0060 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7432  S17W39  260  0020 BXO  06  007 BETA
7433  N13W18  239  0260 EAO  13  022 BETA
7434  S12E02  219  0130 HSX  02  002 ALPHA
7435  N10E39  182  0110 DAO  08  014 BETA
7436  N18W51  272  0030 CAO  03  005 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 28 FEBRUARY TO 02 MARCH
NMBR LAT    LO
7417 N16   121
7419 N10   111


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 27 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 27 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
27/ 0705     0709     0806                LDE    B3.7   61
26/B1344          27/A0909       S04E30   DSF
27/ 1906     1941     2128                LDE    B6.9  142


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


