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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302280551.AA03694@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 26 February
Date: Sat, 27 Feb 93 22:51:48 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                26 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 26 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: DATA FOR THIS UT DAY WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR INCLUSION IN THIS REPORT
      DUE TO A SCHEDULED POWER OUTAGE.  SOME DATA MAY BE INACCURATE.  THIS
      SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF UNAVAILABLE DATA.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 057, 02/26/93
10.7 FLUX=126.2  90-AVG=134        SSN=118      BKI=0120 2210  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B2.5     FLU1=2.0E+06  FLU10=1.4E+04  PKI=0120 2210  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B7.9   @ 0753UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.4   @ ****UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.5
NEUTN-MAX= ****%  @ ****UT   NEUTN-MIN= ****%  @ ***0UT  NEUTN-AVG= ****%
  PCA-MAX= ****DB @ ****UT     PCA-MIN= ****DB @ ****UT    PCA-AVG= ****DB
BOUTF-MAX=*****NT @ ****UT   BOUTF-MIN=*****NT @ ****UT  BOUTF-AVG=*****NT
GOES7-MAX=P:****NT@ ****UT   GOES7-MIN=N:****NT@ ****UT  G7-AVG=****,****,****
GOES6-MAX=N:****NT@ ****UT   GOES6-MIN=E:****NT@ ****UT  G6-AVG=****,****,****
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,125,130;SESC:120,125,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,020/020,020,025
    KFCST=1112 3212 2344 4432  27DAY-AP=009,054   27DAY-KP=2313 2223 3567 5455
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class subflares
       occurred. No significant changes were observed in any of the
       visible regions. An 18 degree filament disappeared from the
       southeast quadrant sometime between 25/1542-26/1250Z. No new
       regions were numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Isolated C-class subflares are possible from
       Regions 7433 (N13W05) and 7435 (N09E53).

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past
       24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at mostly active levels. Coronal hole effects
       are expected during the first two days. A filament
       disappearance which occurred late 24 Feb/early 25 Feb may
       influence the field on the final day of the period. Periods of
       minor storming are possible during local nighttimes.

            Event probabilities 27 feb-01 mar

                             Class M    10/10/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 27 feb-01 mar

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                45/45/40
                        Minor Storm           20/20/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                55/55/45
                        Minor Storm           25/25/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/05


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7429  S13W61  295  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7430  N07W84  318  0050 CRO  08  003 BETA
7431  S12W57  291  0070 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7432  S17W27  261  0040 CRO  08  013 BETA
7433  N13W05  239  0260 EAO  13  015 BETA
7434  S12E15  219  0140 CAO  03  004 BETA
7435  N09E53  181  0070 CRO  07  011 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 27 FEBRUARY TO 01 MARCH
NMBR LAT    LO
7417 N16   121
7419 N10   111


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 26 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0305 0305 0305                          260
 0359 0400 0400                          620


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 26 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
26/B1250             A1542       S18E38   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
88   N04W19 S10W34 S08W42 N07W23  275  ISO   NEG   005 10830A
89   S38W00 S41W35 S28W46 S25W44  281  ISO   NEG   010 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


