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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302280443.AA00534@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 25 February
Date: Sat, 27 Feb 93 21:43:44 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                25 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 25 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: DATA FOR THIS UT DAY WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR INCLUSION IN THIS REPORT
      DUE TO A SCHEDULED POWER OUTAGE.  SOME DATA MAY BE INACCURATE.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 056, 02/25/93
10.7 FLUX=128.0  90-AVG=135        SSN=124      BKI=0332 2210  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B3.0     FLU1=1.8E+06  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=0332 2211  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C8.4   @ 0551UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.4   @ ****UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.0
NEUTN-MAX= ****%  @ ****UT   NEUTN-MIN= ****%  @ ***0UT  NEUTN-AVG= ****%
  PCA-MAX= ****DB @ ****UT     PCA-MIN= ****DB @ ****UT    PCA-AVG= ****DB
BOUTF-MAX=*****NT @ ****UT   BOUTF-MIN=*****NT @ ****UT  BOUTF-AVG=*****NT
GOES7-MAX=P:****NT@ ****UT   GOES7-MIN=N:****NT@ ****UT  G7-AVG=****,****,****
GOES6-MAX=N:****NT@ ****UT   GOES6-MIN=E:****NT@ ****UT  G6-AVG=****,****,****
 FLUXFCST=STD:125,120,125;SESC:125,120,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,020,020/015,020,020
    KFCST=1112 3212 2344 4432  27DAY-AP=004,009   27DAY-KP=0121 1212 2313 2223
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. A long-duration C1/SF flare with
       an associated minor Type IV sweep occurred very early in the
       period. Two optically uncorrelated C-class x-ray bursts also
       occurred early in the day. Minor decay was observed within
       Regions 7430 (N09W68) and 7432 (S17W13). Slight growth occurred
       in Region 7433 (N12E08). New Region 7435 (N09E67) was numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Isolated C-class subflares are possible from Region 7433.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first
       day. Conditions are expected to increase to mostly active
       levels for the remainder of the period due to coronal hole
       effects.

            Event probabilities 26 feb-28 feb

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 26 feb-28 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/45/45
                        Minor Storm           15/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/55/55
                        Minor Storm           20/25/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/10/10


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7429  S13W47  294  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7430  N09W68  315  0080 CAO  09  005 BETA
7431  S11W44  291  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7432  S17W13  260  0070 CAO  11  020 BETA
7433  N12E08  239  0300 EAO  12  022 BETA
7434  S12E28  219  0130 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7435  N09E67  180  0030 CRO  06  004 BETA
7427  S20W75  322                    PLAGE
7428  S06W59  306                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 26 FEBRUARY TO 28 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7417 N16   121


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 25 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 25 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
25/B0815          26/A0004       S43E04   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


