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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302280040.AA28307@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 24 February
Date: Sat, 27 Feb 93 17:40:11 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                24 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 24 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: DATA FOR THIS UT DAY WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR INCLUSION IN THIS REPORT
      DUE TO A SCHEDULED POWER OUTAGE.  SOME DATA MAY BE INACCURATE.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 055, 02/24/93
10.7 FLUX=135.4  90-AVG=135        SSN=131      BKI=1212 1102  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B3.2     FLU1=2.0E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1222 2221  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.8   @ 2039UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.4   @ ****UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.4
NEUTN-MAX= ****%  @ ****UT   NEUTN-MIN= ****%  @ ***0UT  NEUTN-AVG= ****%
  PCA-MAX= ****DB @ ****UT     PCA-MIN= ****DB @ ****UT    PCA-AVG= ****DB
BOUTF-MAX=*****NT @ ****UT   BOUTF-MIN=*****NT @ ****UT  BOUTF-AVG=*****NT
GOES7-MAX=P:****NT@ ****UT   GOES7-MIN=N:****NT@ ****UT  G7-AVG=****,****,****
GOES6-MAX=N:****NT@ ****UT   GOES6-MIN=E:****NT@ ****UT  G6-AVG=****,****,****
 FLUXFCST=STD:140,145,150;SESC:140,145,150 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,015,020/010,015,020
    KFCST=1112 3211 1234 3322  27DAY-AP=006,004   27DAY-KP=2322 2211 0121 1212
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:IV=2@2039UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. One optically uncorrelated
       C-class x-ray burst occurred. Occasional B-class subflares were
       also observed. Minor growth occurred in the trailer portions of
       Regions 7430 (N09W54) and 7432 (S17W00). The remaining regions
       were stable. No new regions were assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Isolated C-class subflares may occur within Region 7432.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past
       24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled until late 26 February/early
       27 February. Thereafter the field is expected to increase to
       mostly active levels due to recurrent coronal hole effects.

            Event probabilities 25 feb-27 feb

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 25 feb-27 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                05/60/45
                        Minor Storm           05/20/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                05/20/30
                        Minor Storm           01/25/40
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/10/20


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7425  N16W93  353  0060 HAX  02  001 ALPHA
7429  S12W34  294  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7430  N09W54  314  0160 DAO  09  016 BETA
7431  S11W25  285  0090 CSO  07  003 BETA
7432  S17W00  260  0140 EAO  11  039 BETA
7433  N11E21  239  0310 EKO  11  014 BETA
7434  S13E42  218  0160 HAX  03  003 ALPHA
7426  N06W69  329                    PLAGE
7427  S20W62  322                    PLAGE
7428  S06W46  306                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 25 FEBRUARY TO 27 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7418 N04   166


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 24 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 1936 2039 2217 7433  N14E22 C1.8  SF    210           IV


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 24 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
24/ 1936     2039     2217       N14E22   LDE    C1.8  161     2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


