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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302272322.AA25032@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 22 February
Date: Sat, 27 Feb 93 16:22:41 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                22 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 22 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: DATA AFTER 16:00 UTC WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR INCLUSION IN THIS REPORT
      DUE TO A SCHEDULED POWER OUTAGE.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 053, 02/22/93
10.7 FLUX=133.1  90-AVG=136        SSN=142      BKI=3353 3323  BAI=020
BGND-XRAY=B3.0     FLU1=9.5E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3365 4333  PAI=030
  BOU-DEV=***,***,***,***,***,***,***,***   DEV-AVG=*** NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.3   @ 1302UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.4   @ 0420UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.6
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 0420UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 1410UT  NEUTN-AVG= -2.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0700UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0540UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55413NT @ 0321UT   BOUTF-MIN=55365NT @ 0847UT  BOUTF-AVG=55398NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+090NT@ 1536UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-020NT@ 0806UT  G7-AVG=+060,+042,+006
GOES6-MAX=N:+123NT@ 0810UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-002NT@ 1546UT  G6-AVG=+072,+020,+066
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,140,145;SESC:135,140,145 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/015,010,010
    KFCST=2225 5121 1115 5121  27DAY-AP=019,010   27DAY-KP=4444 4332 1343 3211
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Only a few subflares were
       observed since yesterday. None were significant. Region 7433
       (N12E47) remains the most complex region on the disk.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. There is a chance of an isolated M-class flare in 7433.

            The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active for most
       periods. Storm conditions occurred from 22/0600-0900Z. Today's
       activity is believed to be a continuation of the coronal hole
       disturbance which began yesterday.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active for another day, becoming
       quiet to unsettled by the end of the forecast period.

            Event probabilities 23 feb-25 feb

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 23 feb-25 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/20
                        Minor Storm           15/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           20/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/05


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7425  N16W67  353  0060 CSO  04  003 BETA
7427  S20W36  322  0010 BXO  04  007 BETA
7429  S13W08  294  0110 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7430  N08W27  313  0040 CSO  07  007 BETA
7431  S11W01  287  0110 CSO  07  009 BETA
7432  S17E25  261  0190 DAO  10  018 BETA
7433  N12E47  239  0420 EAO  11  013 BETA
7434  S14E66  220  0100 HSX  02  004 ALPHA
7426  N06W43  329                    PLAGE
7428  S06W20  306                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 23 FEBRUARY TO 25 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7414 N15   179
7423 N19   177
7418 N04   166


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 22 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 22 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


**  End of Daily Report  **


