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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302272217.AA20153@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 February
Date: Sat, 27 Feb 93 15:17:16 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                19 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 050, 02/19/93
10.7 FLUX=116.0  90-AVG=137        SSN=118      BKI=3132 1121  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B2.4     FLU1=2.6E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3032 2111  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=021,007,028,013,009,008,012,009   DEV-AVG=013 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.7   @ 1416UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.8   @ 2342UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.3
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1950UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2350UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0600UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55417NT @ 0041UT   BOUTF-MIN=55391NT @ 2041UT  BOUTF-AVG=55406NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+112NT@ 1904UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-007NT@ 0806UT  G7-AVG=+081,+037,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+126NT@ 1739UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-004NT@ 1825UT  G6-AVG=+091,+010,+049
 FLUXFCST=STD:115,115,120;SESC:115,115,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=030,020,015/020,015,015
    KFCST=3346 6433 3335 5333  27DAY-AP=003,009   27DAY-KP=2000 0011 1224 2222
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Only a few small subflares
       from a variety of Regions have occurred since yesterday.
       Region 7425 (N15W26) has simplified a little over the past day.
       Region 7427 (S19E05) has also simplified in white light but
       retains some complexity in H-alpha. Regions 7431 (S12E42) and
       7432 (S17E64) have both developed somewhat. Both have grown
       in white light and both have produced a few subflares.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Isolated M-class activity is possible in Region 7427.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled until 20 February. Active to
       storm conditions are then possible due to flare activity on 18
       February. A coronal hole may maintain active conditions for the
       duration of the forecast period.

            Event probabilities 20 feb-22 feb

                             Class M    20/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 feb-22 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/10
                        Minor Storm           20/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    25/15/05


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7424  N10W62  028  0050 CSO  05  006 BETA
7425  N15W26  352  0110 CSO  06  014 BETA
7427  S19E05  321  0060 CSO  06  011 BETA
7429  S14E31  295  0110 CSO  07  002 BETA
7430  N08E11  315  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7431  S12E42  284  0070 CAO  07  010 BETA
7432  S17E64  262  0100 DAO  08  004 BETA
7426  N06W04  330                    PLAGE
7428  S06E19  307                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 20 FEBRUARY TO 22 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7421 S13   216


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 19 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                     NO DATA PRESENTLY AVAILABLE


**  End of Daily Report  **


