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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302190942.AA25831@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 18 February
Date: Fri, 19 Feb 93 2:42:30 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                18 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)

IMPORTANT NOTICE:

     The STD will be unable to broadcast these daily summaries from 20
     February to 26 February.  Equipment which is scheduled to be
     moved from one place to another will prevent these reports from
     being compiled. All missed reports will be broadcast after 27
     February. All alerts and warnings will also be affected and will
     not be broadcast until after 27 February. We apologize for any
     inconvenience this may cause.


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 18 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 049, 02/18/93
10.7 FLUX=126.0  90-AVG=138        SSN=134      BKI=1114 4323  BAI=012
BGND-XRAY=B5.5     FLU1=4.3E+05  FLU10=1.4E+04  PKI=1123 4423  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=005,006,005,041,044,028,018,023   DEV-AVG=021 NT     SWF=03:059
 XRAY-MAX= M4.0   @ 0307UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.2   @ 1600UT   XRAY-AVG= C2.0
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2125UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1950UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2245UT     PCA-MIN= -0.8DB @ 1700UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55414NT @ 1502UT   BOUTF-MIN=55386NT @ 1848UT  BOUTF-AVG=55404NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+100NT@ 1758UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-003NT@ 0922UT  G7-AVG=+079,+041,+009
GOES6-MAX=P:+117NT@ 1757UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-002NT@ 1832UT  G6-AVG=+089,+012,+052
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,135,135;SESC:130,135,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,030,020/015,030,020
    KFCST=3333 3333 3555 4334  27DAY-AP=005,003   27DAY-KP=0211 1223 2000 0011
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*PROTON;*PCA;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M4.0/2B@0308;**SWEEP:II=3,IV=1@0308;**MINFLR:M1.6/1N@1003;
          **MINFLR:M1.1/1B@1106;**SWEEP:IV=3@1106;**TENFLR:280SFU@0316,DUR=12;
          **TENFLR:330SFU@1106UTC;**SWEEP:II=2@1135UTC
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7425 (N16W14) was
       responsible for the largest flare of the day with an M4/2B
       tenflare at 18/0308UT. This flare had associated Type II and
       Type IV radio sweeps and a loop prominence on the disk. This
       region also produced a 1N flare with a Type II sweep at 18/1135
       UT, a C1/1F flare at 18/1752UT and a B8/SF flare at 18/0800UT.
       Region 7427 (S19E17) joined in with an M1/1N tenflare with an
       associated Type IV sweep at 18/1003UT, an M1/1B tenflare with
       an associated Type II sweep at 18/1106UT, a C1/SF flare at
       18/1809UT and a small SF flare. Region 7424 (N10W44) produced a
       small C1/SF flare at 18/1335UT and a SF flare at 18/1254UT.
       Regions 7430 (N08E25), 7431 (S12E55) and 7432 (S17E73) were
       numbered today.  The NSO reported strong Ca XV emissions on the
       southwest limb on 17 February.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Regions 7425 and 7427 have the best chance for
       M-class flares. Region 7427 has a small chance of producing an
       isolated X-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
       for the past 24 hours. High latitude stations saw a short
       period of minor to major storm levels from 18/1200 to 1500UT.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours, then
       active to minor storm levels for the remainder of the forecast
       period as shock fronts from todays flare activity reach
       the geomagnetosphere. A good sized coronal hole will rotate
       into a favorable position by the third day of the period.

            Event probabilities 19 feb-21 feb

                             Class M    35/35/25
                             Class X    05/05/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 19 feb-21 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/15/15
                        Minor Storm           15/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/30/25

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/20/15
                        Minor Storm           20/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/45/35

            HF propagation conditions approached normal over most
       regions.  Isolated night-sector instabilities existed over some
       high latitude paths.  Conditions are expected to deteriorate
       over the next 72 hours.  Shocks from recent minor flare
       activity will arrive after 19 February and are expected to
       produce geomagnetic activity approaching or surpassing minor
       storm levels.  This will result in poor to very poor
       propagation over the high and polar latitude paths, and good to
       fair (and occasionally possibly poor) propagation over the
       middle latitude paths.  The activity is expected to persist
       through to at least 21 February.  Additional solar activity
       capable of generating interplanetary disturbances are expected
       from the regions now near the central meridian.  Additional
       periods of degraded propagation will therefore remain possible
       throughout the first part of next week (after 22-26 February).

       The STD will be unable to report on these conditions through
       the next week, although all daily summaries will be broadcast
       around 27 or 28 February for those days that were missed.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7424  N10W49  028  0040 CSO  04  005 BETA
7425  N16W14  353  0120 DAO  06  019 BETA
7427  S20E17  322  0100 DAO  05  015 BETA
7428  S06E32  307  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7429  S14E45  294  0090 CAO  06  005 BETA
7430  N08E25  314  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7431  S12E55  284  0030 CRO  05  005 BETA
7432  S17E74  265  0020 BXO  03  003 BETA
7426  N06E09  330                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 19 FEBRUARY TO 21 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
7421 S13   216


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 18 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0134 0134 0135                          190
 0258 0308 0337 7425  N14W02 M4.0  2B    350 280    II/IV
 0927 1003 1037 7427  S20E28 M1.6  1N        250       IV
 1054 1106 1141 7427  S21E21 M1.1  1B   3200 330    II
 1135 1135 1150 7425  N17W10       1N               II
 1545 1545 1546                          310
 1747 1752 1756 7425  N18W14 C1.1  1F    110
 1805 1809 1812 7427  S19E21 C1.2  SF    230
 2132 2132 2132                          100


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 18 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
18/B0306             A0342       N14W02   RSP    M4.0   39  3  1
18/ 0927     1003     1037       S20E28   LDE    M1.6   69     3
18/ 1054     1106     1141       S21E21   LDE    M1.1   47  3
18/B1136             A1136       N17W10   RSP               2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
          NONE VISIBLE


**  End of Daily Report  **


