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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
Message-Id: <9302181841.AA20825@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 February
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 93 11:41:06 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                17 FEBRUARY, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 FEBRUARY, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 048, 02/17/93
10.7 FLUX=124.3  90-AVG=138        SSN=086      BKI=1335 6530  BAI=028
BGND-XRAY=B6.5     FLU1=5.4E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1335 66*2  PAI=036
  BOU-DEV=006,033,031,077,132,085,020,004   DEV-AVG=048 NT     SWF=01:075
 XRAY-MAX= M5.8   @ 1040UT    XRAY-MIN= B4.6   @ 1837UT   XRAY-AVG= C2.9
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0315UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2235UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2345UT     PCA-MIN= -0.7DB @ 0755UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55423NT @ 0308UT   BOUTF-MIN=55358NT @ 1500UT  BOUTF-AVG=55399NT
GOES7-MAX=E:+113NT@ 0855UT   GOES7-MIN=N:-026NT@ 1337UT  G7-AVG=+071,+036,+006
GOES6-MAX=N:+138NT@ 0913UT   GOES6-MIN=P:-084NT@ 1447UT  G6-AVG=+084,+011,+045
 FLUXFCST=STD:120,120,125;SESC:120,120,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/015,015,010
    KFCST=4441 1111 2223 3232  27DAY-AP=006,005   27DAY-KP=2313 2111 0211 1223
 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF;*PROTON;*PCA
   ALERTS=**MAJFLR:M5.8/SF@1040,S07W87(7420),1032-1040-1227
!!END-DATA!!


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was high. Region 7420 (S07W90) produced
       today's only M-class flare, an M5.8/SF at 1040Z. The region was
       near the limb and this allowed detailed observations of loop
       and surge dynamics during the flare event. The other groups on
       the disk were relatively calm. Region 7427 (S21E31) continues
       to show frequent small flares. Region 7425 (N15W01) continues
       to grow and produced a couple of small flares.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. The most likely sources for M-class flares are
       Regions 7420 (from behind the limb for one day) and 7425.

            The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels.
       An initially quiet field became disturbed following a sudden
       impulse at 0302Z on the 17th. Minor to major storm levels
       ensued at mid-latitudes and severe storm levels were attained
       at high latitudes between 0900-1800Z. Conditions appeared to
       be subsiding toward the end of the period. The source of the
       disturbance is uncertain but may have resulted from the filament
       that erupted from the disk late on the 13th.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next
       12 hours as the current disturbance may cause some nighttime
       substorms. Conditions should return to generally unsettled
       for the remainder of the first day. There is a chance for an
       increase to slightly active levels on the second day as a
       response to today's major event. Mostly unsettled levels
       should dominate by day three.

            Event probabilities 18 feb-20 feb

                             Class M    35/25/25
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 feb-20 feb

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                45/25/10
                        Minor Storm           30/15/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                50/30/05
                        Minor Storm           35/20/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

            HF propagation conditions were below normal over the high
       to middle latitude paths.  Strong degradation of polar-path and
       high-latitude path signals resulted from todays minor to severe
       geomagnetic storm activity.  Conditions were well below normal
       at the end of the UT day, but are expected to improve over the
       next 24 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z FEBRUARY
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7420  S07W96  088  0090 DAO  04  004 BETA
7424  N09W34  026  0040 CAO  04  004 BETA
7425  N15W01  353  0150 DAO  06  018 BETA
7427  S20E31  321  0080 CAO  04  008 BETA
7429  S13E59  293  0100 CAO  04  002 BETA
7426  N06E22  330                    PLAGE
7428  S05E41  311                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 18 FEBRUARY TO 20 FEBRUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 FEBRUARY, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
 0111 0115 0122 7427  S20E44 C4.2  SF    140 18
 0459 0459 0500                          400
 1032 1040 1227 7420  S07W87 M5.8  SF        110


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 FEBRUARY, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
17/ 1032     1040     1227       S07W87   LDE    M5.8  115
17/ 2009     2029     2105                LDE    C1.3   56


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
88   N31E81 S27E26 N08E06 N40E81  325  ISO   POS   063 10830A


**  End of Daily Report  **


